On September 10, we published our most recent Bitcoin update. At that time, Bitcoin was trading around $79,000 following a strong August. Our model anticipated a brief pullback toward the $67,500 to $73,000 range. That pullback was expected to set the stage for the next upward move toward our price target of $98,000. That pullback is now in full swing. Bitcoin dropped to $72,700 this week, entering the range we mentioned in September. Today, we’re updating our outlook and strategy for the coming period.

We recommend that you first read the September 10, 2026, article titled“Bitcoin: A Breathing Space Before the Next Sprint to $98,000.” That way, you’ll be fully up to speed on the background. You can find the article HERE.

What has happened to Bitcoin’s price since September?

The pullback came later than expected. After our previous article, Bitcoin initially continued to rise, supported by strong inflows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs. In early October, the price hit just over $87,000, but the rally stalled there. Since then, Bitcoin has closed in the red for five weeks in a row.

This decline is due to a series of setbacks. The most significant is the withdrawal of institutional capital. The same ETFs that fueled the rally saw a net outflow of $1.28 billion in the week ending November 6. This was the largest weekly outflow since late June. Things also went wrong within the crypto sector itself. On October 29, Binance, the world’s largest crypto platform, was hit by the biggest hack in the sector’s history. Binance is covering the losses itself, but confidence took a hit.



Shortly thereafter, the turmoil spread from the stock market. Concerns about the AI sector triggered a sell-off in tech stocks in early November, causing Bitcoin to lose more than 5% in a single day on November 5.

The final blow came from the U.S. On November 10, inflation came in higher than expected, and Bitcoin immediately dropped to $72,700, its lowest level since August. The market is now strongly pricing in an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve on December 9. Higher interest rates make risky investments like Bitcoin less attractive. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $74,500.

Yelza’s Outlook on Bitcoin’s Price

Our model builds on the September scenario and refines it today. The expected correction has begun, and Bitcoin is currently at the upper end of the range we identified. We anticipate a final decline to the $70,000 to $68,000 range. That is 5% to 9% below the current price.

From that range, we expect the uptrend to resume. Our previous price target of $98,000 will serve as an intermediate stop along the way. Our model now sees room for a rise to $115,000. After that, we anticipate a pullback toward $98,000, followed by a new rally toward our multi-year price target of $140,000. That would mark a new record. Below is the Bitcoin price chart showing what we believe to be the most likely scenario according to our model, indicated by arrows.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is taking the breather we anticipated back in September. The decline is driven by ETF outflows, higher inflation, and fears of an interest rate hike, but according to our model, the larger uptrend remains intact. Those who already hold a position may consider holding on to it and viewing a decline to the $70,000 to $68,000 range as an opportunity to add to their position. For investors who do not yet hold a position, that same range offers a potentially attractive entry point. Starting at $70,000, the price target of $115,000 would represent a potential return of over 60%.

No one knows exactly where the bottom lies. That is why we recommend gradually entering the market starting at the current level. With this method known as dollar-cost averaging you buy in fixed amounts at different times rather than all at once. If the price falls further, you buy more at a lower price. If the market turns around sooner than expected, you already have a position.

The Fed’s interest rate decision on December 8 and 9 is the most important short-term catalyst to keep an eye on.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.