Publication Date: October 1, 2026

The U.S. bond market is once again the focus of attention. The 10-year yield reached5.29 percent this week , the highest level since 2007. The 30-year yield rose to 5.62 percent, the highest level since 2002.

Which U.S. interest rate is rising?

The current rise in interest rates does not concern the Federal Reserve’s official policy rate, but rather the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds.

This market interest rate is determined by supply and demand and is influenced, among other things, by expectations regarding inflation, economic growth, and the Fed’s future policy. The U.S. 10-year yield, in particular, is closely monitored worldwide as an important barometer. This yield plays a key role in the valuation of investments and in financing costs throughout the economy.

In September, the 10-year yield rose by more than 0.47 percentage points. That is the sharpest monthly increase in about two years.

Why are interest rates rising so sharply?

A major cause is the ongoing uncertainty surrounding inflation. Oil prices have risen sharply due to geopolitical tensions. Higher energy prices could reignite inflation, thereby increasing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will keep its policy rate high for longer.

In addition, U.S. government finances are a factor. The government must issue large amounts of new Treasury bonds, while investors are taking an increasingly critical view of the size of the national debt. As a result, they are demanding higher yields to hold U.S. bonds with longer maturities.

Why is this important for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin does not pay interest. Consequently, an investor’s return must come primarily from a rising price. If U.S. Treasury bonds simultaneously offer a yield of more than 5 percent, holding Bitcoin becomes more expensive: after all, you are forgoing a virtually risk-free return.

That doesn’t automatically make crypto unattractive, but it does give investors a stronger alternative. Especially when uncertainty in the financial markets increases, capital is more likely to flow toward bonds as a result.

Recent price movements show that Bitcoin is sensitive to this trend. After the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since 2007, Bitcoin fell back toward $83,000. Higher oil prices and growing expectations of further interest rate hikes also played a role in this.


Conclusion

Rising U.S. bond yields currently represent a clear headwind for Bitcoin. A 10-year yield above 5 percent makes government bonds more attractive to investors seeking returns with less price risk. This could slow the inflow into riskier investments such as crypto.

For Bitcoin, U.S. interest rates will remain a key factor in the coming period, alongside factors such as inflation, geopolitical developments, institutional inflows, and general market sentiment. Persistently high interest rates could slow the recovery, while falling rates could, conversely, create more room for riskier investments such as crypto.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.