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Publication date: Nov. 21, 2024
Movement of the AEX Index
It is Thursday, Nov. 21, and the AEX is at 855 in the morning session. That is down 9 points (1%) from last week's reading. Above is the chart of the AEX over the past 6 months. You can see the previous trades and the most likely scenario plotted.
The AEX has continued its downtrend this week with no significant recovery. This week's highest rate was 868 on Tuesday, and the lowest was 854. We have no major macroeconomic figures this week. People were looking forward to Nvidia's quarterly numbers on Wednesday night aftermarket. These figures are good but are not yet appreciated by the market with a price increase.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment in EU equity markets continues to be characterized as "tired and uncertain." What is the expectation for the AEX?
What is the expectation for the AEX?
The algorithm has adjusted the price target for the short position in the AEX from 830 to 848. Thus, the most likely scenario does not assume that a new low is now set below the August 5 low at 840. Around 848, we expect a recovery in the AEX that could still be followed by a drop to 830 but that is too uncertain at the moment. At 848 the algorithm goes neutral in the AEX. The stop loss is unchanged at the entry-level 885. Our clients have received notification of this via WhatsApp/Email.
Reflection: read our view of the AEX of November 14, 2024, here
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 20,605 which is 470 points (-2.2%) lower than last week's reading.
Ending last week, the Nasdaq futures underwent a correction and fell to 20,400 points. The futures thus cooled a bit after the strong rise in the previous week. On Wednesday, the future rebounded to 20,800 and is currently moving sideways around 20,600.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq future?
The correction last week was stronger than expected. This means an increased risk of further weakening in the short term. The stop-loss of 19,800 points is the rock-solid lower limit that the future must start holding in order to continue the positive trend in the short term. The coming week will therefore be crucial. For the long term, the forecast is unchanged positive and the price target stands at 24,000 points.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 4 months with the most likely scenario plotted.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 43,440 points, which is about 400 points (-0.9%) lower than last week's reading. This puts the DJIA exactly in last week's indicated zone which the index can correct. The week's high was Monday at 43,650 and the week's low is set for now on Tuesday at 43,000. The DJIA is thus correcting as expected from the rise in the previous week.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
The most likely near-term scenario is a continuation of the correction to around 42,750 before picking up the upward trend to the 2025 price target of 48.000. The position is currently neutral in anticipation of the correction.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures over the past 3 months with the most likely scenario plotted.
Important items on the economic calendar for the week of Nov. 25 through Nov. 29:
This coming week, America celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday and US stock markets are closed, and on Friday, US stock markets are open for only half a day.
Before that, we look forward to the release of the core US inflation figures for October. These will appear at 4 p.m. on Wednesday.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
