Publication date: June 6, 2025

The week ahead: Inflation figures US and Germany

In Money Care's weekend report, we provide an overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could move the stock markets.

Review of last week:

As expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. This is the eighth cut in a year. Exactly one year ago, the deposit rate in the EU was 4% and currently 2%. Commenting, President Lagarde said that EU inflation is at a level to cut interest rates and that the economy could well use this interest rate support. According to the market, there is still a remote possibility of another cut in the fall of 2025.

The monthly labor figures in the US (NFP) indicated a strong development. More new jobs than expected, and in addition, hourly wages are rising faster than expected. This shows a positive economic development. Of great importance is that inflation remains under control. These figures will appear in the coming week.

Last week saw important developments in the trade war between the United States and China.

On June 5, U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping had a 90-minute phone conversation. Their first direct contact since Trump's re-election. During this conversation, they agreed to resume trade talks and consider mutual state visits. Trump described the conversation as "very positive," while Xi insisted on complying with previous trade agreements and warned against U.S. support for Taiwanese independence.

Earlier this week, China accused the U.S. of violating trade agreements by imposing new restrictions on AI chip exports and revoking Chinese student visas. At the same time, China maintained its export restrictions on rare earth metals, leading to production problems at automakers worldwide.

Financial markets reacted cautiously to the telephone conversation between Trump and Xi. Investors remained concerned about continued uncertainty and a lack of concrete results. The Chinese yuan fell to its lowest level in two years, and U.S. manufacturers reported a decline in production and new orders, underscoring the negative impact of the trade war on the economy.

Upcoming week:

In the week ahead, we look forward to inflation data from the U.S. and Germany. On Wednesday comes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the US. The CPI measures changes in the price of goods and services from the consumer's point of view. The Core CPI excludes food and energy from the calculation. On Friday, the German CPI is released. In addition, the Producer Price Index (PPI) from the U.S. is published on Thursday. The PPI is the indicator that measures the average change in the selling prices of domestic products of goods and services. This is from the seller's point of view.

The CPI and PPI indicate the development of inflation and are therefore important indicators of interest rate policy.

The Economic Calendar week 24:

Here is the most important economic data for the coming week.

Monday, June 9, 2025:

Tuesday, June 10, 2025:

Wednesday, June 11, 2025:

• 14.30 CPI monthly
• 14.30 CPI annual
• 14.30 Core CPI monthly
  
  

Thursday, June 12, 2025:

United States:

• 14.30 PPI monthly

• 06.30 CPI Netherlands
  

Friday,June13, 2025:

• 08.00 CPI Germany

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and authorities.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.