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Publication date: December 4, 2025
It is Thursday, December 4. The AEX notes 951 in the morning session. That is 12 points (1.3%) higher than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX this week has continued the recovery already started last week, from 916. The AEX opened at 940 and set Wednesday's preliminary weekly high at 953. The rise was mainly due to the strong rebound in a number of Tech funds. Heavyweight ASML managed a 9% price gain in the past week, already accounting for about 12 points of gains in the AEX.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Overall sentiment on the AEX is uncertain and mixed. Investors are looking forward to the long-awaited important macroeconomic data. In the coming weeks, the influential inflation and labor figures in the US will be released, and next week is the US Fed's interest rate decision. These data will determine the direction of equity markets in the coming month.
What is the expectation for the AEX?
In the most likely short-term scenario, the current recovery is just a rebound in a correction that has yet to be completed. This correction may push the AEX back to the 910 - 915 zone.
For the next few months, we expect a moving stock market to undergo a larger correction. This means that after 915, a recovery to around 960 is expected, before falling through to 880. Then the AEX continues the major trend to a new top around 1,015.
Below 880, the longer-term positive scenario expires and the AEX enters a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline. As long as 880 holds, the positive long-term scenario remains in place.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of January 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 25,615 on Thursday morning, December 4. That is 315 points (1.25%) higher than last week.
The Nasdaq futures managed to continue their recovery from 23,850 this week. The futures opened the week at 25,480 and set Wednesday's preliminary weekly high at 25,670.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?
Long-term positive with a price target of 27,800. In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq will also experience an extended correction to eventually reach the zone around 22,300. From that level, the Nasdaq can continue upward toward the price target. With a close below 22,200, the positive scenario expires.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 47,980 points, which is 480 points (1.0%) higher than last week's reading.
The DJIA is recovering strongly from its November decline to 45,780. With a weekly high of 48,077, the DJIA remains just 1% off the record high of 48,525.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
In the most likely scenario, the DJIA could test the record low around 48,500 in the short term before continuing the initiated correction and falling back to the zone around 45,200.
For the longer term, our system foresees a larger correction that will first allow the DJIA to recover from 45,200 to around 47,000 before completing the larger correction at 43,300. After that, the move can begin toward the longer-term price target of 50,000. The scenario expires at a close below 43,200.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.
Every Sunday morning, we publish the Economic Calendar for the coming week. Would you like to receive the Economic Calendar by mail? Sign up here.
In the Economic Calendar we cover the most important topics through an explanation and vision. Read here the stock exchange agenda for the week from December 1 to December 5, 2025, and from Friday afternoon, you can read here the stock exchange agenda for the week from December 8 to December 12, 2025.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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