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Publication date: December 11, 2025
It is Thursday, December 11. The AEX notes 940 in the morning session. That is 11 points (1.1%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX opened the week at 948 and set a weekly high at 950 the same day. This is where the price recovery of recent weeks ended as the AEX then fell back to the preliminary weekly low at 937.
The interest rate cut in the U.S. was as expected and was already factored into prices. For now, the Fed sees no reason to cut interest rates further in the near term. In the coming months, the labor figures and inflation figures from the U.S. will be very important for the future interest rate policy in the U.S.. The market is taking into account one or two more interest rate cuts in 2026.
The uncertainty about interest rate cuts in the coming months did not give the stock market wings and closed slightly lower on Wednesday evening after a brief rebound.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Overall sentiment on the AEX remains uncertain. Investors are looking forward to the long-awaited important macroeconomic data. In the coming week, the influential inflation and labor figures in the U.S. will be released. These data will determine the direction of equity markets in the coming month.
What is the expectation for the AEX?
In the most likely scenario for the short term, the AEX will complete the correction in the 910-915 zone.
For the coming months, we expect a moving stock market undergoing a larger correction. This means that after the 915, a recovery to around 960 is expected, before falling through to 880.Then the AEX continues the major trend to a new top around 1,015.
Below 880 the longer-term positive scenario expires and the AEX enters a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline. As long as 880 holds, the positive long-term scenario remains in place.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of January 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
Whathappened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 25,500 on Thursday morning, December 11. That is 115 points (0.45%) lower than last week.
The Nasdaq futures opened the week cleanly at 25,750 and managed to rise through to 25,870. After the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference, the Nasdaq fell back to its preliminary weekly low at 25,380.
What is the outlook for Nasdaq futures?
For the long term positive with a price target of 27,800. In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq will also experiencean extended correction to eventually the zone around 22,300. From that level, the Nasdaq can continue upward toward the price target. With a close below 22,200, the positive scenario expires.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 47,970 points, which is 10 points lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA is holding up well around 48,000 points and, for now, is little affected by the Fed's interest rate policy. The weekly high is 48,242 and the weekly low is 47,500. This is set for the Fed's interest rate decision and press conference.
What is the forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
In the most likely short-term scenario, the DJIA could continue the correction that has begun and fall back to the zone around 45,200. For the longer term, our system foresees a larger correction that will first allow the DJIA to recover from 45,200 to around 47,000 before completing the larger correction at 43,300.
After that, the move can begin toward the longer-term price target of 50,000. The scenario expires at a close below 43,200.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.
Every Sunday morning we publish the stock market agenda for the coming week. Would you like to receive the stock market agenda by mail? Sign up here.
In the fair agenda we cover the most important topics through an explanation and vision. Read here the stock exchange agenda from December 8 to December 12, 2025 and from Friday afternoon read here the stock exchange agenda for the week from December 15 to December 19, 2025.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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