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Publication date: December 31, 2025
It is Wednesday, December 31. The AEX notes 948 in the morning session. That is 6 points (0.65%) higher than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX opened the week cleanly at 945 and dropped back to 941 the same day. On Tuesday, the AEX climbed to 953 in traditionally quiet trading and for no immediate reason. With the current price at 948, the AEX is surging somewhat adrift but slightly positive out of the year.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Overall sentiment on the AEX is slightly more positive but underlying remains uncertain. Of great importance is the development of inflation and the labor market in the US. More clarity on this will emerge in the first weeks of January 2026.
What is the expectation for the AEX?
In the most likely scenario for the next few months, the AEX will complete the correction in the 910-915 zone.
We expect a transition period in the uptrend. The algorithm gives a most likely scenario for the next six months in which the AEX moves relatively sideways between 910 and 960.This is the layout for the upward breakout towards the price target at 1015.
The possibility of a larger correction up to 880 has diminished so the correction is expected to end around 910.
Below 880 the longer-term positive scenario expires and the AEX enters a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline.As long as 880 holds, the positive long-term scenario remains in place.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of January 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
Whathappened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 25,570 Wednesday morning, December 31. That is 220 points (0.85%) lower than last week.
The Nasdaq futures have had a couple of strong and volatile weeks. This week, in a quiet market for no immediate reason, the Nasdaq must give up some ground.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?
Long-term positive with a price target of 27,800. In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq will finish the correction in the zone around 23,000. From that level, the Nasdaq can continue upward toward the price target. With a close below 22,200, the positive scenario expires.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 48,570 points, which is 130 points (+0.25%) lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA is holding up well in the zone around the record level of 49,000.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
In the most likely short-term scenario, the DJIA could test the 49,000 point barrier or even set a new top around 49,300. Furthermore, a larger correction to around 45,500 is expected.
For the longer term, our system foresees a price target of 51,500. The scenario expires at a close below 43,200.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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