Publication date: December 24, 2025

It is Wednesday, December 24. The AEX is trading at 942 in the morning session. That is 10 points (1.05%) higher than last week's reading.

What happened on the AEX last week?

The AEX opened the week cleanly at 944 and then continued to move relatively quietly between 940 and 946. Last week's lower-than-expected CPI indeed brought recovery in equity markets. Due to the absence of important macroeconomic figures and the short trading week, many parties closed the books. As a result, equity markets will not experience a rigorous trend change this week.

What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?

Overall sentiment on the AEX is unchanged and remains uncertain. Of great importance are the development of inflation and the labor market in the US. In the first weeks of January 2026 there will be more clarity on this.

What is the expectation for the AEX?

In the most likely short-term scenario, the AEX will complete the correction in the 910-915 zone.

For the coming months, we expect a volatile stock market undergoing a larger correction. This means that after the 915, a recovery to around 955-960 is expected, before falling through to 880. Then the AEX continues the major trend to a new top around 1,015.

Below 880, the longer-term positive scenario expires and the AEX enters a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline. As long as 880 holds, the positive long-term scenario remains in place.



Above is the chart of the AEX as of January 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.

Whathappened on the Nasdaq this past week?

The Nasdaq futures are at 25,790 on Wednesday morning, December 24. That is 740 points (2.95%) higher than last week.

Nasdaq futures remain highly volatile but also strong. After last week's decline to 24,887, the Nasdaq manages to climb to 25,827 (+3.8%) in the past week. Lower U.S. inflation data and strong 4.3% annualized economic growth in the U.S. give the Nasdaq strength up.

What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?

Long-term positive with a price target of 27,800. In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq will first test the top at 26,500 before going through a longer correction to eventually the zone around 23,000. From that level, the Nasdaq can resume the upward trend toward the price target. With a close below 22,200, the positive scenario expires.

Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from January 2025 showing the most likely scenario.

What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?

The DJIA is currently quoting 48,700 points, which is 420 points (+0.85%) higher than last week's reading.

The DJIA is holding up extremely well and is again trading just below the record high. With a preliminary weekly high of 48,850, the DJIA manages to climb another 1,000 points after last week's dip.