ASML is the most popular stock among Dutch investors in 2025 and needs no further introduction. This year ASML experienced another volatile share price trend, but on balance, the price is performing extremely well with a year-to-date gain of 43%.

Our most recent article on ASML dates back to July 17, 2025 in which we suggested you consider putting the stock in your portfolio at around €600 with a price target €1,000. Currently, we are five months down the road and the share price is €960. The indicated target price is fast approaching so it is time for an update. We review the developments and determine whether ASML can currently rise further and what opportunities there are for you as an investor.

We heartily recommend that you read the July 17, 2025 article "ASML: history repeats itself. Once again fear rules!" carefully. That way, you will be fully informed. Read the article HERE.

What have been the developments at ASML in recent months?

The main developments since July 2025 within ASML can be distilled from the presentation of the third-quarter 2025 results. On October 15, ASML reported total third-quarter 2025 net sales of €7.5 billion.

Gross margin came in at 51.6%. Net profit was €2.1 billion. Net orders were about €5.4 billion, a substantial part of which consisted of EUV systems. These figures were in line with the expectations previously expressed by ASML's board.

Brief note: ASML's EUV system is an ultra-advanced machine that uses extreme ultraviolet light to print the world's smallest transistors on chips. A machine costs up to about €400 million and weighs about 150 tons. It is used by TSMC, Samsung and Intel, among others. ASML typically sells dozens of EUV machines a year (40-60 in recent years), with ambitious plans to increase that toward 110 a year once production and demand allow.

In terms of outlook, ASML predicted fourth-quarter 2025 revenue between €9.2 billion and €9.8 billion and a gross margin between 51% and 53%. For all of 2025, revenue growth of around 15% compared to 2024 is expected, with an estimated gross margin of around 52%.

ASML indicated in presenting its quarterly results that it does not expect total sales in 2026 to be lower than in 2025. However, the company pointed out that demand from China is likely to drop significantly next year, compared to the strong 2024 and 2025 years.

At the same time, ASML continues to rely on structural demand from chip makers outside China, especially from AI-driven chips and advanced memory chips.

What is currently the view on ASML from the analysts of major international banks?

In general, technical analysts are more positive than fundamental analysts. The latter group has ASML on BUY for long term but the short term price target of €965 has been met.

Comments on overall view of international analysts:

Some analysts see 2026 as a transition year for ASML. The idea is that while the "low-NA" EUV machine business is largely ongoing, the transition to "high-NA EUV" in 2026 is still limited, so strong growth may come only in later years. Nevertheless, there is optimism about the combination of EUV and services: if both segments grow, 2026 could still bring modest revenue growth. A key support factor is rising demand for memory (DRAM) and AI chips, which could boost demand for EUV machines.

As a risk for 2026, analysts see the likely decline in sales to Chinese customers and the logistically complex transition to "high-NA EUV." According to some analyses, 2026 is mainly a transition year and high-NA's contribution to sales is still limited.

In the medium term (2027 - 2030), a new growth cycle is expected for ASML, helped by the adoption of "high-NA EUV" and a structural shift to increasingly sophisticated chips for AI, data centers and high-performance computing.

What is our view on ASML's stock price?

Below is ASML's stock price chart over the past five years. Our most likely scenario is marked with arrows.

In the short term, the target price has been increased from €1,000 to €1,100. This means that with the current price at €960, we expect to see a price gain of about 14% in the coming weeks. From that level, in the most likely scenario, the price will go through a long correction that could put ASML back in the €750.- to €700.- zone in 2026.
The long term is promising, and the system sets the price target for 2027 at €1,500.

With this, our scenario is somewhat in line with the analysts. The coming year could be called a transitional year in which the price corrects. This provides opportunities for the long term as the prospects for ASML are excellent.

Conclusion

As market leader, ASML has a special position in a sector with fantastic prospects. The long-term outlook remains very positive. The price pattern is positive and volatile. As a result, as an investor you can always consider selling a share if the price has upward momentum and buying in the event of interim setbacks. This was demonstrated again after the price dip to €600 last summer.

For the short term, momentum is in place and we expect a new top around €1,100.
You can consider selling (part of) your position at that point. The correction gives opportunities from the €750 level to consider a position again for the move to the next price target at €1,500.

January 28, 2026, ASML will report the annual results for 2025.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.