Publication date: December 5, 2025

The week ahead: US interest rate decision

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in the stock markets.

Review of last week:

Last week saw the absence of any major macroeconomic surprises. As a result, equity markets were able to continue the recovery already underway unhindered. All this in anticipation of the release of some important data in the coming week.

Inflation in the Netherlands fell from 3.1% to 2.9% and in the EU it rose from 2.1% to 2.2% year-on-year. The estimate of the number of new jobs in the U.S. for November, as published by payroll processor ADP, while deviating from expectations, again had little impact on the markets. For your information: ADP is counting on a decline of 32,000 jobs for November.

The Core PCE Price Index for September gave no surprising results. The personal consumption spending index remained as expected at 2.9% annualized.

Upcoming week:

In the week ahead, we look forward to Wednesday. On that day, the interest rate decision by the U.S. FOMC will be announced at 8 p.m. and the press conference will follow at 8:30 p.m.. The market is anticipating a 25 basis point cut but there is some uncertainty. Because of the absence of recent macroeconomic data due to the U.S. government shutdown, the decision-making process is more complicated than usual. The absence of important data on the two main pillars, the labor market and inflation, may prompt the Fed to pause on interest rate cuts in the United States.

However, based on available data, it is likely that US interest rates will be cut by 0.25% on Wednesday. This is largely already reflected in stock prices. In this situation, the press conference explaining the Fed's policy and possible statements about the coming period will become very important for the direction of the stock markets in the coming weeks.

The stock market calendar week 50

Herewith, the most important macro-economic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, December 8, 2025:

Tuesday, December 9, 2025:

EU:

• 08.00  Trade balance Germany

Wednesday, December 10, 2025:

• 20.00  Interest rate decision
• 20.30  Fed press conference
  
  

Thursday, December 11, 2025:

• 14.30  Producer Price Index

Friday, December 12, 2025:

No important macro-economic dates

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.