In February 2025, we published extensively on ASM International NV (ASMI). At that time, the company was on the eve of disappointing reports and the world soon faced the announcement of huge import tariffs by the US. As a result, 2025 became a turbulent year for the already volatile ASMI. Today, we are ten months in and can look back on the events, providing a clear update on strategy and opportunities for you as an investor.

In the February 20, 2025, article "ASM International (ASMI): in the lull to great performance!", you will find the background information. We recommend that you read this article first. You can find the article HERE.

What have been the developments at ASMI in 2025?

ASMI revised its revenue forecast for 2025 downward on Sept. 23, just before investor day (Investor Day). On that date, the company announced that revenue in the second half of 2025 is expected to be 5% to 10% lower than in the first half, while previously it was still expected that the second half would remain "more or less the same" as the first half. Thus, the expected sales growth for all of 2025 came down to the lower end of the 10% to 20% range given earlier. This means expected sales of about €3.2 billion in 2025.






During the mentioned Investor Day in London, the company explained its plans for 2030. In it, it mentioned an ambitious goal to achieve sales of more than €5.7 billion by 2030, with strong margins and free cash flow growth. This is a doubling of sales over 2024 and shows that despite short-term challenges, the focus remains primarily on medium-long-term growth. The plans were well received by investors.

ASMI began producing equipment locally in the United States, including in Phoenix, Arizona, to mitigate the effects of (unpredictable) U.S. tariffs and to be closer to U.S. customers. The company announced that it will invest hundreds of millions of euros in a new location in Almere, expanding capacity and R&D facilities. The supervisory board indicated its intention to reappoint CEO Hichem M'Saad for a second term (four years), indicating continuity in leadership.

ASMI's stock price reacts very strongly to events in the industry and therefore develops volatility. Below you can see at a glance the swings in the stock price over the past year. The trade tariffs announced by the U.S. hit it hard in April. On the positive side, the stock price continues to rebound strongly after a price bump in 2025.

What is the analysts' view of ASMI's stock price?

Based on most sources, the overall rating is "Buy" with a price target €620. Technical analysts have the stock predominantly at Strong Buy. The most positive 12-month price target is €700. The current price is hovering around €620, so the average price target has now been met.

Analysts stress that ASMI benefits from long-term demand for technical chip equipment, especially in AI-focused segments and further technology transitions (e.g. power semiconductors and logic chips).


What is our view on ASMI's stock price?

As you may have read in the February 20, 2025 article "ASM International (ASMI): in the lull to great performance!" ASMI is one of our favorite stocks. We gave you the consideration to put the stock in your portfolio at €575 and buy it at €455.

ASMI has had a difficult period where the share price fell further than expected, but the company wisely maintains its vision and focus on the medium term. The company is soundly investing in development and stability in a sector with enormous potential. The most likely scenario of the share price for the next 12 months is first a volatile transition period in which the price corrects from the €630 level until eventually the zone around €535. From that level, the stock price can advance to our unchanged price target at €790.

Below is ASMI's price chart over the past four years, with the most likely scenario indicated by arrows at a glance.

Conclusion:

ASMI is a pleasant but exciting part of the portfolio. The powerful price movements over the years make for a nice positive trend. It does require timing, vision and a stable attitude from the investor. If you already have the stock in your portfolio, then consider holding it. The expected drop to around €535 gives reason to consider buying additional shares or still getting in. ASMI, according to our algorithm, is finishing the positive trend at €790 in 2026 or possibly 2027.

On March 3, 2026, ASMI will report the 2025 figures.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.