Publication date: June 12, 2025

Rarely does a day pass without media coverage of Tesla or its CEO, Elon Musk. Due to numerous developments at Tesla and its rivals, and particularly the remarkable actions of the CEO, Tesla is capturing significant attention and undergoing turbulent times in the stock market. Today, we examine Tesla's history and current status, focusing primarily on the investment opportunities it presents.

First, a closer look and a bit of history.

The history of Tesla, Inc. is a story of innovation, risk, near failure, and ultimately global influence. Tesla Motors was founded in 2003 by engineers Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning. Elon Musk later joins as an investor and becomes chairman of the board of directors. In the early years, Tesla developed the first electric sports car, the Tesla Roadster, based on the chassis of the Lotus Elise. In 2008, this car entered the market. In that year, Elon Musk took over as CEO after Tesla ran into financial trouble during the credit crisis.

In 2010, Tesla went public (NASDAQ: TSLA) - the first American automaker since Ford (1956) to go public.
Two years later is the launch of the famous Model S, a luxury electric sedan with a long range and impressive performance. Tesla is taken seriously in the auto industry from then on.

In 2015 is the introduction of the Model X, an electric SUV with distinctive "falcon wing" doors, and a year later, came the Model 3, a more affordable model that finally allowed mass production.

Only in 2018, 15 years after its founding, will Tesla reach profitability. Finally, the Model Y, a smaller SUV, will be launched in 2020. Tesla is added to the S&P 500 index that year. The stock explodes in value. Tesla builds factories in Shanghai (China), Berlin (Germany), and Austin (US) to scale up production globally.

What is the current situation at Tesla?

Tesla is currently in a challenging phase. The company is facing significant sales declines, especially in Europe and China but at the same time is investing in new technologies and models that can shape the company's future. Tesla employs about 140,000 people. Its market value fluctuates tremendously, reaching about USD 1,000 billion by early June 2025.

In April 2025, Tesla sales in Europe fell 49% from a year earlier. In the EU, the drop was as much as 53%, with only 5,475 vehicles registered. Over the entire year to date, sales in Europe fell 39%. In China, sales fell 23% due to trade conflicts and fierce competition from BYD, which has started a price war. These figures underscore how vulnerable Tesla currently is and how big the impact on the stock could be.

Despite declining sales, Tesla still managed to impress the market recently. The share price has risen significantly in recent months, especially since the April 22 quarterly report. Investors reacted positively to CEO Elon Musk's renewed commitment to the company and the announcement of a self-driving cab service expected to launch in June in Austin, Texas. In addition, President Trump's postponement of U.S. import tariffs on European goods further boosted market sentiment.

At the same time, Tesla is showing ambition by sticking to doubling production capacity at its Gigafactory in Berlin. This expansion is especially notable given the current challenging market conditions.

Below is Tesla's stock price chart as of September 2024. The stock doubled in value after Donald Trump's election and then fell 50% again. Notable is the nearly 70% rise after the quarterly earnings in April.

Tesla plans to launch a self-driving cab service in Austin with a fleet that could grow to 1,000 vehicles within a few months. This service will initially be limited and use teleoperators for support. If this service succeeds, it could reaffirm Tesla's position as an innovator as well as open up new revenue streams.

In addition, Tesla is working on an affordable model, known as the "Model 2," with an expected price below USD30,000. Production of this is scheduled for the second half of 2025.

Tesla and Elon Musk have been targeted by the "Tesla Takedown" movement, a worldwide protest against Musk's political involvement with the U.S. government. This movement has led to demonstrations and vandalism, including arson at Tesla dealerships in France and Germany.

The question is: How long will the stock market continue to ignore this? Elon Musk has confirmed that he will remain CEO of Tesla for at least the next five years. He has reduced his political activities to focus more on the company, giving investors confidence in Tesla's future.

What is the analyst's expectation for Tesla?

Expectations for Tesla's stock price vary widely. Hence, the headline of this article: up or down. Indeed, the expectations of the well-known banks range from USD 500 to USD 115. In general, they are neutral to slightly positive, with an average price target for 2025 of USD 300.

As important points of interest for investors are mentioned:

• Robot cabs: The planned launch in Austin could be an important catalyst for future growth.
• Affordable models: The introduction of a model under USD 30,000 is crucial to maintain market share.
• Competition: Strong competition, especially from Chinese manufacturers such as BYD, is putting pressure on Tesla's market share.
• Musk's leadership: His involvement in other projects and political activities raises questions about his focus on Tesla.
  

What is our share price expectation for Tesla?

As mentioned, Tesla has huge challenges and a lot of potential. The stock price is very volatile so there are opportunities but certainly also risk. It is up or down for Tesla in the near future, which is why we publish two scenarios. The scenario that scores the highest according to our algorithm is the downtrend.

Below is the chart showing the scenario that scores highest in our calculations.

From the current level of around USD 330, the price must first close below USD 271. This is the signal for a further decline that may well sag to around USD 110. Thus, this puts us among the group of analysts who expect Tesla to have much bigger problems than opportunities in the coming period. The drop from USD 330 to USD 110 represents a 67% price drop. A not-unusual price movement for this stock.

However, we are pleased to present an alternative scenario, which also ranks highly in our calculations. Once more, Tesla stands at a pivotal point, with the potential for significant upward or downward movement. It is our responsibility to establish the parameters and prepare accordingly.

Below is the alternative scenario in which Tesla can still overcome challenges and competition, and opportunities are fully exploited.

For this scenario, the stock price must first close above USD 365. In this alternative scenario, the stock price will test the old top at USD 488 and thus rise just under 50% from the current level of around USD 330.

As long as Tesla's share price fluctuates between USD 365 and USD 271, our view is neutral, and we remain out of the market.

Conclusion

Unpredictable and volatile. A notable stock with an equally remarkable CEO. Investors should approach the parameters with a level head, as the price can swing significantly in either direction. Tesla has settled into the USD 271 - USD 365 range following substantial fluctuations. If the price closes above USD 365, it may be prudent to consider adding Tesla to the portfolio in moderation, with a price target of USD 488.

With a closing price below USD 271, the hatch is open, and the price may fall back to USD 110, which is also the lower end of bank analysts' expectations.

You can consider taking advantage of this drop by purchasing a Turbo Short or a Put Option. Please note that these are complex investment products with an increased risk, so in our opinion, this is only to be considered for very skilled, experienced, or professional investors. Of course, you can also quietly wait until the price reaches USD 110,- and at that moment consider buying shares.

The date of publication of the second-quarter figures is not yet known, but we expect them to appear on July 22 after the close of trading.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.