Publication date: March 12, 2026

AEX

The AEX closed Thursday morning, March 12, at 999 points. That is down 1 point, or 0.1 percent from last week.

What happened on the AEX?

The AEX experienced a volatile week. After the monthly labor figures were announced late last week, equity markets were already beginning to show signs of weakness. 

The AEX closed last week on a low note at 980 points. Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions escalated, causing the price of U.S. oil to rise to $112.50 on Monday morning—about 50% higher than at the beginning of the month.

Fear of inflation and uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East dominated the start of the trading week. As a result, the AEX dipped below 960 points on Monday morning.

However, an impressive recovery followed on the same day, and the AEX closed Monday at 983. In the days that followed, the AEX continued its upward momentum, reaching the highest weekly level so far at 1,005 points.

Sentiment

Market sentiment around the AEX remains positive, although uncertainty is high due to developments in the Middle East and the possible impact on the global economy.

Forecast

According to our algorithm, the decline of the AEX to 960 points is expected to continue in the short term. In the most likely scenario, the recovery from 960 to 1,005 was merely an interim relief rally. This recovery is anticipated to be followed by a decline towards the 940 to 950 point zone. 

The long-term price target remains unchanged. The 940 to 950 point zone can serve as the foundation for a new upward move towards the unchanged price target of 1,070 points over the next 12 months. 

A closing below 910 points would invalidate this positive long-term scenario. In that case, the technical outlook would shift to a more neutral phase with increased downside risk. As long as the 910 point level holds, the positive long-term outlook remains intact. 

Above is the chart of the AEX as of June 2025. The arrows illustrate the most likely scenario for the coming months.

Nasdaq futures

The Nasdaq futures note 24,850 points Thursday morning, March 5. That is down 305 points, or 1.2 percent from last week.

What happened?

 The Nasdaq futures briefly fell out of the range they had been in for weeks on Monday morning. The lowest weekly low of 24,000 points was reached early in the week. However, the Nasdaq futures managed to recover nicely and reached a high of 25,217. 

Forecast

In the short term, the market is expected to remain volatile, with a test of the zone around 23,500 points being plausible. From that level, the Nasdaq futures may experience an interim recovery towards approximately 25,000 points. 

At that point, we consider a larger corrective move towards the zone around 22,600 points likely. Afterward, in the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq futures could resume the long-term trend and continue rising towards the unchanged price target of at least 28,500 points. 

The chart below shows the Nasdaq futures as of July 2025 showing the most likely scenario for the coming period.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at 47,170 points. That is down 1,530 points, or 3.15 percent from last week.

What happened.

The index started the week on a weak note, dropping to 46,130 points on Monday. A quick recovery followed, reaching 48,260, but the DJIA was unable to maintain this level. 

Forecast

The algorithm foresees a moving period with weak price formation, which means that the end of the correction is expected at lower levels.

Within the most likely scenario, the index could fall to the level of 45,500 in the short term and then recover towards around 48,100 points.

For the medium term, the system then foresees a larger corrective move towards around 43,200 points.

The level of 43,200 points is expected to mark the end of the larger correction and thus provide the basis for another upward phase towards the next price target of around 53,700 points.

The chart below shows DJIA futures from July 2025 showing the most likely scenario.

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In the agenda we cover the most important topics by means of an explanation and vision. Read here the stock exchange agenda from March 9 to March 13, 2026 and from Friday afternoon read here the stock exchange agenda for the week from March 16 to March 20, 2026.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.