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Publication date: September 4, 2025
It is Thursday, September 4. The AEX is at 891 in the morning session. That is 16 points (1.75%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX is having a moderate week. It started faintly at 898 on Monday and experienced the low on Tuesday at 883. This is technical support and the index recovered nicely to 892. Tuesday's decline was mainly driven by falling bond prices and thus rising interest rates in Europe.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Underlying sentiment on the AEX is moderately positive.
What is the outlook for the AEX?
The longer-term expectation is positive. In the most likely scenario of our algorithm, the AEX is going to rise to the price target 1,050. But our system does set a hard stoploss for the buy position at a close below 880.
In this situation, the positive scenario expires for now and the AEX falls into a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline. As long as 880 holds, the positive scenario remains in force.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of February 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 23,480 on Thursday morning, September 4 that is 160 points (0.7%) lower than last week.
The Nasdaq futures also experienced a down day on Tuesday with a low at 23,025 points. The price then rebounded to the 23,500 level. This is the price around which the Nasdaq futures have been moving for several weeks.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?
For the longer term unchanged positive with price target 26,300. The short-term correction from 24,000 may continue for a while and may lead to a price in the 22,800 to 22,300 zone before continuing to rise to the price target at 26,300.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from February 2025with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 45,270 points, which is 480 points (1.05%) lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA is also experiencing a week of bland price action due to a weekly low of 45,000 on Tuesday. The recovery ran as high as 45,325, remaining around the old resistance level 45,300 for now.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
For the longer term, the outlook is positive. For the short term, the DJIA may still experience a modest decline to the 44,600 to 44,200 level. The expectation in the most likely scenario is that the DJIA will finish the positive trend towards the price target 49,000. The stoploss for the buy position remains 41,800 and price target 49,000.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures from early 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.
Every Sunday morning we publish the stock market agenda for the coming week. Would you like to receive the stock market agenda by mail? You can sign up here.
In the agenda, we cover the most important topics through an explanation and vision. Read here the bourse agenda from September 1 to September 5, 2025 and from Friday afternoon you can read here the bourse agenda for the week September 8 to September 12, 2025.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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