Publication date: Oct. 24, 2024
The course of the AEX Index
It is Thursday, Oct. 24, and the AEX is at 898 in the morning session. That is 5 points (0.55%) higher than last week's reading. The rise is supported by a slightly recovering ASML and good numbers from the other heavyweight Unilever. Above is the chart of the AEX over the past five months. You can see the most likely scenario as we have been reporting for several weeks.
After ASML's price violence in the previous week, the AEX opened Monday morning with a slight recovery and set a weekly high at 904. During the week, the AEX dropped again with a preliminary low at 889. As reported last week, we do not expect any very important figures this week that will affect the downward trend that has begun.
What does this mean for sentiment?
The sentiment in the stock markets can be characterized as "wait-and-see."
As has been reported many times before; expectations are extremely high. A very slight setback will immediately start to provide additional fuel for the underlying somewhat anxious sentiment. It is a matter of waiting to see how the macroeconomic figures turn out in the coming period. There will be the necessary company figures coming out in this period and it is especially to be seen if the heavy-weight companies can live up to the high expectations.
What is the expectation for the course of the AEX Index?"
The algorithm has a running short signal for the AEX from 885. The price target is 835 and the stop loss is 930.
The most likely scenario is unchanged this week and indicates that the AEX has completed the recovery in the 920-925 zone. After that, the larger correction will be completed by a fall of the AEX to the 835 level.
This fall may be triggered as soon as a slightly disappointing macroeconomic figure comes out or if a heavyweight stock cannot meet expectations. Then we can once again expect a moment of panic selling.
As soon as the correction is completed, we can resume the big trend. That moment will give fantastic opportunities to buy for the price target of 1025 by the end of 2025.
Back view: read our view of the AEX of October 17, 2024, here
Course of the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 20.330 which is 100 points (0.5%) lower than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures started the week unchanged after which it rose slightly to the high of 20,600 on Tuesday night. It then bounded down in strength and set its preliminary weekly low at 20,079. This week, the Nasdaq has a slightly weakening trend.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq future?
The algorithm has indicated a higher probability of a buy position exit for the short term. This means that the Nasdaq must continue its trend in the short term or else the buy position will be closed. The stop-loss has been raised to 19,750. The price target remains 21,000.
For the long term, the technical trend is up and the price target is 22,900.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures as of early July with the most likely scenario plotted.
Important items on the economic calendar for the week of Oct. 28 to Nov. 1:
November 1 is again the first Friday of the month and a trading day, so time for the important monthly labor figures from the US. The Fed has indicated that these figures are an important indicator of its interest rate policy.
Before it's 2:30 p.m. on Friday, we may look forward to the Core US monthly and annual inflation figures at 2:30 p.m. on Thursday. These moments will cause price swings next week.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
