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Publication date: Jan. 9, 2025
It is Thursday, January 9, and the AEX is up in the morning session at 891. That is 13 points (1.5%) higher than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week
The AEX opened the 2025 trading year at the 2024 closing price of 878. From the start, the AEX climbed to our previous price target of 897 on Tuesday. After a correction on Wednesday to 884, the index climbed again to the current 891. The first week has been positive and in line with expectations.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX is positive for the coming month.
What is the outlook for the AEX?
Based on last week, the expectation of the AEX has changed positively. The index has consistently held the important 870 level and is coming back strongly from an interim price dip. As long as the AEX holds the 870 level based on the closing price, the most likely scenario is a rise to 930-931. This will not happen in a straight line. The algorithm expects an intermediate correction between 910 and 900.
On reaching 930, a clear long-term vision can be determined. Currently, the vision for the longer term is difficult to determine as there are still too many variables and alternatives.
Here is the chart of the AEX over the past 3 months. You can see the ongoing signal and the most likely short-term scenario plotted.
What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 21,300 which is 80 points (0.3%) lower than last week's reading. Today (Jan. 9) US stock markets are closed due to a day of national mourning in connection with the death of former President Carter. Early last week, the Nasdaq futures tested the well-known support level of 21,000 points before rising to 21,900. In recent days, the future is fallen back to last week's level of around 21,300.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq future?
The near-term outlook is positive. The long position taken at 20,440 is experiencing a modest correction in the upward trend but has an unchanged short-term price target of 23,000. The stop loss remains at 20,900. This effectively creates a stop profit.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 5 months with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 42,900 points, which is 180 points (0.4%) lower than last week's reading. The DJIA future closed 2024 at 42,870 and has been moving sideways around that level over the past week.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
The near-term outlook remains uncertain and slightly negative. The DJIA shows less strength than the Nasdaq and S&P500. The position and view is therefore neutral for the short term with an increased chance of a pullback to the 40,250 level. This scenario will be confirmed once the DJIA closes below 41,750.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures over the past 12 months with the most likely scenario plotted.
Important items on the economic calendar for the week of Jan. 6 through Jan. 10 :
Before we look at next week's agenda, we should first highlight the important monthly labor figures from the US on Friday afternoon, January 10, at 2:30 p.m. Expectations are for slightly lower hourly earnings (0.3%), an unchanged unemployment rate (4.2%) and a lower number of new jobs (154K). Thus, a slight downturn is expected in the labor market. If this expectation comes true or is lower then that in turn will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates further. If the hourly earnings and the number of new jobs are higher than expected then the Fed will not see from this any reason to lower interest rates further in the short term.
In the coming week, we look forward again to inflation data from the US. On Tuesday 14.30 hours the producer price index (PPI) but especially the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday 14.30 hours is important for the markets.
Further attention to the development of inflation in the EU on Friday at 11.00 hours. Here, CPI is expected to be 2.4% annualized. Currently, it is 2.2%. The ECB's goal is to get inflation to 2%.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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