Publication date: Jan. 2, 2025

Course of the AEX Index 

It is Thursday, Jan 2nd, and we wish you all a healthy and happy new year.

The AEX stands at 878 on the first trading day of 2025. That is 2 points (0.2%) higher than last week's reading. Incidentally, the official closing price of 2024 is also 878.

The AEX has also been open on a limited basis this week and trading volumes are low. As a result, markets are moving slightly more erratically. The Index has moved between 870 and 880. The AEX has thus once again tested the important lower boundary of 870.

What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?

Sentiment on the AEX remains moderately positive for the coming month. 

Chart AEX Index

Below is the chart of the AEX for the past 3 months. You can see the ongoing signal and the most likely scenario for the short-term signed.

What is the expectation for the AEX?

Based on last week, the expectation for the AEX has not changed. Based on the closing price, the AEX should hold the 870 level and may rise to 897 in the most likely scenario. At that point, the follow-up scenario will be determined. Currently, the longer-term view is difficult to determine as there are still too many variables and alternatives.

If the AEX closes below 870 then that is a first sign of an expectation of weaker prices which puts levels of 855 and 830 back in sight. Moreover, at that point, the AEX may enter a downtrend to even level 800.

For now, the signal is green and we expect higher prices.

What happened on the Nasdaq this past week?

The Nasdaq futures are currently at 21,385 which is 640 points (3%) lower than last week's reading.

After the sharp December 18 correction, Nasdaq futures recovered nicely. Over the past week, the Nasdaq nevertheless dropped back to the familiar support at 21,000. Volumes are also lower than average here, causing the volatile Nasdaq to fluctuate wildly and fluctuate somewhat adrift between 22,000 and 21,000.

What is the forecast for the Nasdaq future?

The near-term outlook is positive. The long position taken at 20,440 has an unchanged short-term price target of 23,000. The stop loss remains at 20,900. This effectively creates a stop profit.

Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 4 months with the most likely scenario.

What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?

The DJIA is currently trading at 43,080 points, which is 420 points (1%) lower than last week's reading. The DJIA future moved between 43,700 and 43,000 last week.