Current AEX Index
The AEX began Monday morning overenthusiastically with a high at 949. This rebound was short-lived and the same day the AEX dropped back to 937. Wednesday morning came the figures and reports from heavyweight ASML. The figures were not disappointing but the export restrictions threatened from the U.S. threw a spanner in the works. ASML fell 11% on Wednesday. Based on the weighting in the index, ASML was responsible for a 1.7% drop in the AEX. Here above is the chart of the AEX as of January 1, 2024. You can see the most likely scenario for this year penciled in on July 12. Briefly back to the 896 before finishing the trend at 1,025.
What does this mean for sentiment?
We have been writing for weeks that the stretch is momentarily out of the ascending trend and that a correction is imminent and that the rise above our price target of 935 is most likely a false breakout. Given the course of the markets over the past week, it is clear that the markets are indeed taking a breather and reversing for a while. This is how we can best describe the current sentiment.
What is the expectation of the course of the AEX Index?"
The algorithm has given a sell (short) signal at 938. Price target 896 with possible runout to 875 and stoploss at closing above 946. This is a correction within a strong uptrend with the unchanged price target at 1,025 for the AEX.
In the coming week we can expect a slight recovery in the AEX. This recovery may rise 1.5% from the current 913 to around 927.
Back view: read our view of the AEX from July 12, 2024
Coil movement of the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 19,860 which is 568 points (2.8%) lower than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq also set its highest weekly reading on Monday morning with a price of 20,800.
After that, the expected correction began which reached its lowest this morning at 19,750 points.
What is the expectation of the Nasdaq's price movement?
The most likely scenario for the Nasdaq is very similar to that of the AEX. However, the Nasdaq is more volatile and the upward trend in the Tech sector is more powerful so the price rise will be further than that in the AEX.
Concretely, the most likely scenario for the next few weeks is a correction that could fall to around 19,000 points. After that, the Nasdaq could pick up the strong trend again towards the adjusted price target of 22,900 points for the future.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100 -future since January 1, 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted as plotted on July 12.
Important items on the economic calendar for the week of July 22 to July 26:
In the coming week, the most important figure for the stock market comes at 2:30 p.m. on Friday afternoon. That's when we again expect the monthly and annual (core) inflation figures from the US.
Earlier this week we briefly focus on the purchasing managers' index for the services and manufacturing sectors. These appear at 3:45 p.m. on Wednesday. On Thursday morning, AEX heavyweight Unilever releases half-year figures.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. Therefore, they are for educational purposes only.
