Publication date: May 15, 2025

It is Thursday, May 15. The AEX is at 924 in the opening session. That is 19 points (2.1%) higher than last week's reading.

Over the next six weeks, as the financial world faces significant uncertainties and brief periods of relief that lead the AEX to experience a temporary drop of 16% followed by a 19% increase, it is crucial to ensure that risk management is well-structured and that the analysis remains both robust and adaptable.

In times of high risk, a neutral liquid position is best. The analysis should be robust and sustainable enough that in highly volatile times it keeps the big picture but also knows how to respond sharply and flexibly to good opportunities with acceptable risk. Our algorithm has saved us from headaches in tumultuous times, and the live performance stands at +10% in 2025. From the risk-free neutral position, the system continues to hunt for the right entry level for the next big price move to further boost performance.

What happened on the AEX in the past week?

The AEX opened the trading week higher at 917 on Monday and shot through to the high at 931 on Wednesday. A very powerful move that is currently correcting at 924. The temporary agreement in the trade war between the U.S. and China and the lower-than-expected increase in inflation in the U.S. pushed equity markets further higher.

What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?

Sentiment on the AEX is positive. After the great uncertainty from the beginning of April, the feeling of relief currently prevails.

What is the expectation of the AEX?

The rise of the AEX is no longer seen by our algorithm as a recovery but as a first step of the next uptrend. In the most likely scenario, after a slight correction, the AEX continues to climb to the 950 level. From that level, a larger correction will follow to around 895-890 before continuing the upward trend to our price target of 1,050.

For the short term, we can expect a short-term decline to around 910 and then finish this first move up at 950.

Above is the chart of the AEX as of mid-February. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.


What happened on the Nasdaq over the past week?

The Nasdaq futures are at 21,350 on Thursday morning, May 15, which is 1,125 points (5.5%) higher than last week's reading.

The Nasdaq futures showed a lot of strength earlier and continued their advance over the past week. The Nasdaq opened higher Monday at 20,400 and continued the advance to the high at 21,400.

What is the expectation for the Nasdaq's future?

What is true for the AEX also applies to the Nasdaq, noting that the Nasdaq is performing even stronger. In summary, the most likely scenario is that the Nasdaq futures can move smoothly to the 22,400 mark after a slight correction. From there, the larger correction is expected to reach around 20,600 before continuing to rise to the preliminary price target of at least 24,000. For the longer term, we should certainly not rule out a higher price target.

Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from November 2024 with the most likely scenario.

What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index last week?

The DJIA is currently trading at 41,850 points, which is 300 points (0.7%) higher than last week's reading.

The DJIA started the week well, but cannot maintain the level. This week, the DJIA opened higher at 41,850 and immediately pushed through to the high at 42,600. As of Monday, the DJIA is down slightly and is back at this week's opening price.

What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?

The DJIA is somewhat weaker than the AEX and the Nasdaq. From the current level, there is room for a further decline of 1 a 2% to about 41,200. Then up to 43,000. The price target remains 48,000.

Below is the chart of the DJIA futures from November 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.

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In the fair agenda, we cover the most important topics through an explanation and vision. Read the agenda for the week of May 12-16, 2025, here, and from Sunday morning, you can read the agenda for the week of May 19-23, 2025, here.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.