Current AEX Index
It's Thursday 12 September and the AEX is in the midday session on 897. That is 6 points (0,65%) higher than the previous week's score. Here you will find the chart of the AEX since January 1, 2024. You can see the most likely scenario as we have reported it for several weeks.
The AEX is recovering this week from Friday afternoon's hefty price bump. Following the release of monthly labor figures in the U.S., the market initially rallied slightly but soon seeped through that the previous months' figures had been revised negatively. This immediately caused another big sell-off and brought the AEX back to the 878 level on Friday night. This week the index is recovering to the preliminary weekly high of 899.
The major trend is up and the indicated decline is a healthy correction and provides perfect opportunities to buy shares for the longer term. AEX price target remains 1025 points.
What does this mean for sentiment?
Sentiment in equity markets can be characterized as "anxious." This is characterized by the big lows and firm declines after a little worse-than-expected news.
What is the expectation of the price movement of the AEX Index?
The algorithm issued a short signal at 885 on Wednesday afternoon. Price target 820. The stoploss is adjusted over time but for the moment it stands at 930.
The most likely scenario remains that the AEX in the zone 920-925 has completed the recovery has completed. Subsequently, the larger correction is completed by a drop in the AEX to the 820-810 level.
Look back: read our view of the September 6, 2024 AEX here
The price movement of the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 19.300 which is 400 points (2.1%) higher than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures are much more volatile than the AEX but show similar trends. Sharp decline in early August as the first impetus for a larger correction. Followed by a very strong recovery and then the continuation of the correction. Notable is the strong recovery that the Nasdaq keeps showing. The market indicates that it has a lot of upside strength.
What is the expectation of the Nasdaq's stock price movement?
Because of the large outliers, the risk is higher than acceptable and the algorithm remains neutral on the Nasdaq. In the most likely short-term scenario, the Nasdaq has already completed the recovery and can continue the correction from the current level and finish at the 16,500 level.
After the correction, the Nasdaq can pick up the strong trend again towards the long-term price target of 22,900 points for the future.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100-future since January 1, 2024, with the most likely scenario plotted.
Important items on the economic agenda for the week of Sept. 16 through Sept. 20: |
The week ahead revolves around the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday evening at 20.00. Followed by the press conference at 8.30 pm. The overall consensus is a 0.25% cut. The explanation of the Fed's interest rate policy is particularly important and will most likely cause considerable volatility on Wednesday night.
A 0.5% cut is generally considered panic action. If they indicate a 0.25% cut each of the next three quarters will possibly be taken up as positive by the markets.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
