Publication date: Aug. 7, 2025

On Januari 23, 2025, we already covered the situation at Apple. We warned of a sharp correction in the first half of the year from $225 to $175.

We are now more than seven months on and the stock price has indeed experienced the expected correction. Today we address Apple's current situation and share our vision for the future.

Read the January 23, 2025 article HERE. That way you'll be fully informed.

What is the current situation at Apple?

Apple Inc. released another excellent quarterly earnings report on July 31 but its stock price has lagged significantly in 2025. The legendary company that presented us with the smartphone in 2007 has been lagging behind in the AI revolution for some time and is in danger of losing the race to tech giants like Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon. There could even be a scenario similar to Nokia, which fell off its pedestal 15 years ago by missing the smartphone revolution. We assume that Apple has learned from the sad history at Nokia and will act quickly. It is uncertain whether Apple can catch up!





Apple has been extremely successful for nearly two decades with its products such as the well-known iPhone, iMac and iPad, as well as its services such as the App Store and Apple Music. Over the past quarter, revenue actually increased 10%, bringing total revenue to $94 billion. The iPhone is the bestseller with $44 billion in sales. With a net quarterly profit of $23.4 billion, Apple exceeded market expectations on a broad front. After the release of these great numbers, the stock price fell about 2.5%. In fact, as of the start of 2025, the stock price has fallen 19%. Investors are very concerned about Apple's AI developments. To a lesser extent, there are concerns about developments in global trade restrictions.

CEO Tim Cook signaled accelerated investment in AI by, among other things, updating the moderately successful Siri. Over the next four years, Apple plans to invest $500 billion. An unknown portion of this huge sum is earmarked for AI technologies such as Apple Intelligence and expansion of its specialized workforce. Investment in AI is expected to reach several tens of billions per year.

What is the expectation for Apple?

Apple largely runs its fantastic revenue on the iPhone and its services such as App Store and Apple Music. The iPad seems to have had its best days. New products are not really getting off the ground. In addition, a true AI revolution is underway in which competitors are way ahead. Moreover, competitors will invest larger sums in AI in the coming years than Apple plans. Apple might consider partnering with well-known AI companies such as OpenAI. This could provide a solution to lagging behind in the AI race. However, Apple will then have to make concessions on company policy. Apple has always gone its own way which gives it complete control. A forced collaboration will weigh heavily on Apple's corporate culture.

In the title, we mention the company Nokia. The Finnish company was the undisputed world leader in mobile phones until about 2009. Nokia missed the smartphone revolution and went under within a few years. Microsoft bought the technology in 2013 for a rock-bottom price. Today, Apple is also indispensable in the world of smartphones but is thus in danger of missing the revolution that has already begun. The IPhone will not disappear soon, but Apple must quickly ensure that the AI techniques of the future are perfectly applicable in its devices. With planned investments and a practically difficult collaboration option, we are not confident about the future.

This anxiety is shared by the market. As reported, Apple's share price in 2025 is 19% lower than the 2024 close. Despite great numbers.

We do not expect Apple to suffer the same fate as Nokia but do not rule it out either. Our expectation is that Apple will face another difficult period in which the share price could fall sharply. Below is the price chart showing our current most likely scenario.

In the chart above, the target price for Apple in 2025 is set at $165, with an expected technical recovery towards $195. For the 2026-2027 period, the price target is lower, at $125. This returns Apple to the price levels we saw in 2021 and 2022.

The expectations of analysts from the major international banks differ from our analysis. The banks are fairly positive and have an average price target of $230 for the next 12 months, expecting a 10% increase in the share price.

Conclusion

Apple is selling fantastic products and achieving higher than expected sales and profits. The AI revolution is in full swing but Apple is already far behind the competition.

Investments in AI are unclear. Collaborating with major AI partners will be a difficult exercise, in our view, because of the major concessions Apple will have to make in policies and culture within the company. We expect an extended period of lean stock market performance from Apple and await the achievement of price targets. However, we do keep a close eye on Apple news because a sudden significant change in policy or a new CEO could just bring a new outlook. We remain keen but for now we are staying away from Apple.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.