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Publication date: July 31, 2025
It is Thursday, July 31. The AEX is at 913 in the morning session. That is equal to last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
On balance, extremely little has been happening on the AEX for some time. This is despite the many company figures and the necessary macroeconomic events. The index opened Monday at 914, reached a high of 915 and fell to a low of 906. Today and tomorrow important macroeconomic figures will be published that may provide more direction on the AEX.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Underlying sentiment on the AEX is positive.
What is the expectation on the AEX?
The longer-term expectation is unchanged positive. In the most likely scenario of our algorithm, the AEX is going to rise to the price target 1,050. Because of the long period during which the AEX moves within a sideways pattern, our algorithm still gives the possibility of a short slip to at the latest around 880.
This does not affect the positive scenario. The stoploss remains at 870. In the ride to the price target we can expect some resistance around 935 and 950.
The chart above shows the development of the AEX since early 2025, with a clear sideways pattern from mid-May. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq last week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 23,790 on Thursday morning, July 31, which is 430 points (1.8%) higher than last week.
As such, the Nasdaq futures continue to rise strongly, setting a new all-time high this week at 23,809 points.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?
Unchanged positive for the longer term. In the most likely scenario, Nasdaq futures will begin a modest short-term correction of about 3% to about 22,800 before continuing to rise to the adjusted price target at 26,300.
In the correction, a consideration to take a buy position arises. Below is the chart of Nasdaq futures as of September 2024, showing the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 44,750 points, down 310 points (0.7%) from last week's reading.
Unlike the Nasdaq, we do see the expected modest correction in the DJIA already. The DJIA started the week with the weekly high at 45,308 only to fall back to 44,416.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
For the longer term, the outlook is positive. For the short term, the DJIA may complete a modest correction with a drop of about 2% to the 43,750 level and then continue up to the price target at 49,000.
In the correction, a consideration to take a buy position arises. Below is the chart of the DJIA futures from October 2024, with the most likely scenario plotted.
Every Sunday morning we publish the stock market agenda for the coming week. Would you like to receive the stock market agenda by mail? Sign up here.
In the agenda, we cover the most important topics through an explanation and vision. Read the agenda for the week of July 28 to August 1, 2025 here and from Friday afternoon you can read the agenda for the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025 here .
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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