Publication date: February 12, 2026

AEX

The AEX is trading at 1,005 points in the morning session, an increase of 13 points, or 1.3 percent higher compared to last week.

What happened on the AEX in the past week?

Late last week, the AEX touched the 979 level. This completed the short term correction and successfully tested the expected zone around 975. On Monday, the index opened strongly at 995 points, after which it continued to rise in the following days to a preliminary weekly high of 1,013 points.

The index was influenced last week by a large number of corporate earnings and the US labor market report. Individual stocks showed significant movements. Ahold Delhaize rose by 11 percent on Wednesday, while Adyen and Magnum lost 15 to 20 percent on Thursday morning. Heavyweight Unilever was trading approximately 3 percent lower on Thursday morning.

US labor market figures presented a mixed picture. The January 2026 figures were stronger than expected, but the downward revision for the whole of 2025 weighed on sentiment. Over the past year, significantly fewer jobs appear to have been created than previously reported. This fuels concerns about the underlying strength of the US labor market. At the same time, this increases the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which is supportive for equity markets.

Sentiment

Overall sentiment on the AEX remains positive, but volatility around the 1,000-point line is high.

Forecast

In the most likely scenario, the decline to 979 has successfully tested the zone around 975 and the AEX is engaged in a new upward movement towards the short term price target of 1,040 points.

After that, a larger correction may follow to approximately 970 points. This pullback could form the basis for a structural breakout towards the twelve month price target of 1,070 points.

A close below 910 points invalidates the positive long term scenario. In that case, the AEX enters a neutral phase with increased downside risk. As long as the 910 level holds, the positive long term scenario remains intact.

Above is the chart of the AEX as of July 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq future is trading at 25,350 points on Thursday morning, 12 February, an increase of 365 points, or 1.5 percent compared to last week.

What happened?

At the end of last week, the Nasdaq future declined to 24,200 points, thereby approaching the expected level of 24,000. The index then recovered strongly to a preliminary weekly high of 25,465 points. This demonstrated resilience, although it was less convincing than in the case of the AEX.

Forecast

In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq future may once again test the 24,000 to 23,500 zone in the short term. From that level, a new upward phase can be initiated towards 27,000 points.

This level serves as an intermediate station on the way to the long term price target of at least 28,500 points. Below is the chart of the Nasdaq future over the longer period from August 2024, with the most likely scenario indicated.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently trading at 50,300 points, an increase of 780 points, or 1.6 percent compared to last week.

What happened.

The index reached exactly the indicated correction level of 48,700 points at the end of last week, after which a new upward movement began. The preliminary weekly top is at 50,600 points, giving the Dow another strong performance.

Forecast

In the most likely scenario, the correction is completed at 48,700 points and the Dow can rise towards a new preliminary top around 51,000 points.

For the longer term, the system then anticipates a larger correction to approximately 48,500 points. This movement can subsequently form the basis for a new upward phase towards the next price target of 53,700 points. The positive scenario is invalidated by a close below 45,500 points.

Below is the chart of DJIA futures from July 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.

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Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.