Publication date: Feb. 6, 2026

The week ahead: as-yet US labor figures and inflation

In Money Care's weekend report, we present the overview of (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Review of last week:

Investors had been looking forward to the release of the U.S. monthly labor figures (NFP) at 2:30 p.m. on Friday. However, in the middle of last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced that the release has been postponed to Wednesday, February 11. The main reason for this change is a delay in data processing at the BLS caused by a partial U.S. federal government shutdown in early February.

Inflation data for the Netherlands and the EU were, as expected, published as scheduled. The figures show a notable decline in inflation, with Dutch inflation falling from 2.8% to 2.4% year on year and EU inflation easing from 2.0% to 1.7%. Economists point to strong seasonal effects, including the winter sales period.

Interest rates in the EU remain unchanged at 2.0% deposit rates, as expected.

Equity markets remained relatively calm, although major tech stocks declined by up to 5%. Overall, the underlying market tone remains positive. In recent weeks, the largest price movements have been observed in more volatile markets such as gold, silver and cryptocurrencies, where daily swings of around 20% have become increasingly common.

Coming week:

As mentioned above, the US monthly labor figures, known internationally as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), will be released on Wednesday. The development of the NFP is an important guide for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy in the US. As a result, it directly influences the development of the stock and crypto markets.

The U.S. labor market has been developing at a moderate pace for some time. The January figures are expected to show some improvement following the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, the market consensus remains modest, with an expected increase of 68,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%, while average hourly earnings growth is forecast to stay flat at 0.3%. This is consistent with recent trends indicating a cooling U.S. labor market.

If the number of new jobs in January has increased less than the expected 68,000, it is a clear sign that the labor market is not yet showing a convincing recovery. This is a trigger for further interest rate cuts which will cause equity markets to rebound.

In addition, markets are looking ahead to the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January. As a key inflation indicator, the CPI is the other major benchmark used by the Federal Reserve in setting monetary policy. The CPI will be released on Friday at 2:30 p.m. The market expects annual inflation to remain largely unchanged at 2.7%, still above the Fed’s 2% target. A lower-than-expected reading would increase the scope for further interest rate cuts.

The stock market agenda week 7

Here are the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, Feb. 9, 2026:

Tuesday, Feb. 10, 2026:

United States:

• 14.30 Retail Sales

Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2026:

United States:

• 14.30 Non-Farm Payrolls
  
  

Thursday, Feb. 12, 2026:

No important macroeconomic dates

Friday, Feb. 13, 2026:

United States:

• 14.30 CPI January
• 14.30 Core CPI January

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and authorities.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.