Publication date: July 4, 2025

The week ahead: Does trade war enter a new phase?

In Money Care's Economic Calendar, we present an overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in the stock markets.

Review of last week:

Monthly labor figures from the US were strong. This report indicates that the important labor market in the US is resilient. For your information, the unemployment rate is 4.1, which is lower than the previous month and also lower than expected. The number of new jobs in June came in at 147,000. This was also more than expected. Average hourly earnings rose less than expected. Many new jobs at slightly less favorable wages. Stock markets reacted positively with an increase of about 0.5%.

Because of the strong labor figures, the extent to which inflation picks up in the coming months is of great importance. If price increases are going to rise sharply, then there is no reason for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. Should economic growth continue in a healthy way and inflation remain under control, this will have a positive effect on equity markets.

Next week:

No very important macroeconomic events are scheduled. However, global trade tensions may start to rise a bit. The markets are especially watching July 9, when the US "Liberation Day" deadline expires and Trump may activate possible new 50% tariffs on EU imports.

Furthermore, an EU trade commissioner is traveling to the U.S. to reach a political agreement and avoid additional tariffs. In addition, both China, the U.S. and the EU are preparing for important talks later this month. For example, the EU-China summit is scheduled for July 24 and 25.
For now, we do not expect significant price movements in the coming week based on macro figures and trade war developments.

The Economic Calendar for week 28

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, July 7, 2025:

No major macroeconomic data.

Tuesday, July 8, 2025:

Wednesday, July 9, 2025:

• 8 p.m. FOMC minutes
  
  

Thursday, July 10, 2025:

United States:

• 14.30 Weekly initial applications for unemployment benefits
  
  

Friday, July 11, 2025:

Europe:

• 08.00 Inflation Germany (CPI)
  

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and authorities.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.