Publication date: May 9, 2025

The week ahead: inflation figures

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with an overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in the stock markets.

Brief review of last week:

Trade War:

For the first time since the outbreak of the U.S.-China trade conflict, there has been some rapprochement. Analysts indicate that the path to a lasting trade relationship is narrow and fraught with obstacles, but that the initiation of high-level talks indicates mutual willingness to de-escalate. Progress is likely slow, with negotiations extending into the U.S. midterm elections.

US interest rate decision

The Fed has left its herb dry. The developments and consequences of the trade war remain too uncertain for the Fed to act as soon as there is more clarity.

Next week:

Inflation in the Netherlands, Germany, and the U.S. will be announced during the week through the CPI (Consumer Price Index). The CPI reflects changes in the price of goods and services from the consumer's point of view. There is also a PPI; this shows the same thing, but from the producers' point of view.

Inflation is a major topic of discussion in the US. People fear the effects of import tariffs and the trade war. At worst, this could turn into stagflation. This is stagnant economic growth and increased inflation.

President Trump strongly wants interest rates to be lowered to promote economic growth. The Fed will only do this if inflation is under control and the economy needs a little tailwind.

Should it turn out in the coming week that inflation figures are higher than expected, we should not expect an interest rate cut for the time being. It will be very difficult for the Fed to set its policy in the coming period. The data that matter, such as the CPI and the monthly labor figures (NFP), will be given extra weight during this period and will cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Stock Market Agenda Week 20:

Here is the most important economic data for the coming week.

Monday, May 12, 2025:

Tuesday, May 13, 2025:

• Netherlands:
  
  
  • 6.30 Consumer Price Index April and annual (expected: 4.1 (+0.4))
    
    
• United States:
  
  
  • 14.30 Consumer Price Index April and annual

Wednesday, May 14, 2025:

• Germany:
  
  
  • 8.00 Consumer Price Index April and annual (expected: 0.4% (+0.1))

Thursday, May 15, 2025:

• United States:
  
  
  • 14.30 Retail Sales April
  • 14.30 Producer Price Index April
  • 14.30 Initial applications for unemployment benefits

Friday, May16, 2025:

No important macroeconomic dates

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.