Publication date: Sept. 12, 2025

The week ahead: US interest rate decision

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Review of last week:

Notable was the outcome of the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US that came out on Wednesday. The PPI measures the average change in the selling prices of domestic producers of goods and services. When producers have to pay more for goods and services, this will be passed on to consumers. This fuels inflation.

The expectation was for a 0.3% increase in August but the outcome was a 0.1% drop in prices. This is very favorable for reducing inflation and gives room for lowering interest rates.

On Thursday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) the Core Consumer Price Index were released. The annualized CPI came in at 2.9% as expected and the core monthly CPI also rose 0.3% in August as expected. Only the month-on-month CPI rose more than expected, at 0.4% while the expectation was +0.3%. The latter was seen as a slight setback for equity markets as it means inflation still remains on the high side. This in turn creates less room for an interest rate cut in the near future.

The important inflation figures therefore presented a mixed picture so that on balance the equity markets remained virtually unchanged on the basis of these figures.

As expected, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged at 2.15% and deposit rates at 2%. Inflation in the EU is under control and at a desired level.

Next week:

In the coming week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision in the US is the most important macroeconomic event. Interest rates are expected to be cut by 25 basis points from 4.5% to 4.25% at 8 p.m. on Wednesday evening. Investors are also looking forward to the policy statement in the press conference following at 8:30 p.m. Since the expected rate cut has already been largely processed by the markets, the Fed's statements and future expectations may have more impact to financial markets.

The economic calendar week 38

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, September 15, 2025:

Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025:

• 14.30 Retail Sales August

Wednesday, September 17, 2025:

• 20.00 Interest rate decision
• 20.30 FOMC press conference

• 09.30 Speech President ECB
• 11.00 CPI August

Thursday, September 18, 2025:

• 14.30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

• 09.10 President ECB speech

Friday, Sept. 19, 2025:

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.