Publication date: October 2, 2025

The week ahead: (delayed) labor figures US

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Review of last week:

Over the past week, it was notable that the estimate by payroll processor ADP of the number of new jobs in the US came in well below expectations. The market expected an estimate by ADP of plus 52,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector, the outcome was a decline of 32,000 jobs. It remains an estimate by a payroll processor but it deviates sharply from expectations. This makes the release of the NFP on Friday, Oct. 10, all the more interesting. Also noteworthy was that U.S. consumer confidence fell short of expectations and is also on the decline.

Since October 1, the US has been in a so-called shutdown. This means that the federal government is (partially) shut down because Congress has not passed a new budget or temporary funding bill. This is because without approved funding, federal agencies are not allowed to spend money. This affects the economy if the situation continues for a long time. The most recent shutdown was also the longest lasting. This one was 35 days, from December 2018 to January 2019. For now, the current shutdown has no impact on equity markets but it is a situation to continue to monitor.

Next week:

Officially, the release of monthly labor figures (NFP) for September was scheduled for Friday, Oct. 3, 2025. But since Oct. 1, 2025, the U.S. has been in a shutdown. The Labor Department/BLS suspends publications as long as there is no funding. As a result, the October 3 NFP could not appear and will not be rescheduled until it is reopened. The expectation is Oct. 10 but there is no official rescheduling to that date (yet).

So in the coming week, the publication of the monthly labor figures (Non Farm Payrolls) is probably still the most important macroeconomic event. A healthy development of the labor market is an objective of the Fed which makes its interest rate policy partly dependent on the progress of the labor market. The expectation for the month of September has been adjusted slightly upward but is not high. The market takes into account an increase of 51,000 new jobs outside the agricultural sector.

The unemployment rate and the percentage increase in hourly earnings are expected to remain the same as August at 4.3 and 0.3, respectively. The NFP is expected to be presented Friday at 2:30 p.m. and will cause additional volatility in equity markets.

Otherwise, no very important data in the coming week and we will follow the continuation of the US shutdown.

The stock market agenda week 41

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, October 6, 2025:

Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2025:

Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025:

• 21.00 FOMC minutes
  
  

Thursday, October 9, 2025:

• 14.30 Fed chairman Powell speech
  
  

Friday, Oct. 10, 2025:

• 14.30 Non Farm Payrolls September

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

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