Publication date: Oct. 3, 2024

Price movement AEX Index

It is Thursday, Oct. 3, and the AEX is at 910 in the morning session. That is 5 points (0.55%) lower than last week's reading. Above, you will find the chart of the AEX as of January 1, 2024. You can see the most likely scenario, as we have been reporting for several weeks.

The AEX is awaiting the monthly labor figures from the US. These will be published at 2:30 p.m. on Friday. Until then, the AEX has fluctuated somewhat adrift between 920 and 905. The high came from the rise of Shell, which is up 3.5% this week. This is because of the increase in oil prices of about 4% due to the situation in the Middle East. So on Thursday, the AEX is heading lower again at 910.

What does this mean for sentiment?

Sentiment in stock markets can be characterized as "anxious". This is reflected in the ever-rising price of gold, the traditional haven in turbulent times. The situation in the Middle East has, of course, been tense for decades, but currently, people are watching developments with anxious eyes. The likelihood of serious escalation is increasing. This, of course, is also directly reflected in the price of oil. The Fed has already cut interest rates significantly and again indicated that it plans to cut rates further in the coming year. However, the speed is fully contingent on the forthcoming data, and if they will proceed at a deliberate pace. So this may cause a slowdown.

As long as inflation stays under control and the interest rate cut does its job causing the labor market in the US to pick up, this policy will work out well for the stock markets. But the bar is high! A slight setback will immediately provide additional food for the fearful sentiment.

What is the expectation for the price movement of the AEX Index?

The algorithm has a running short signal for the AEX from 885. Price target 820 and stop loss at 930.

The most likely scenario is that the AEX has completed the recovery in the 920-925 zone. Then the larger correction will be completed by a fall to the 820 level.
This fall may be triggered as soon as a slightly disappointing macroeconomic figure comes out or if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates significantly. Then we can expect another moment of panic selling.

The major trend remains up and the indicated decline is a healthy correction and provides perfect opportunities to buy shares for the longer term. AEX price target remains 1025 points.

Look back: read our view of the September 26, 2024 AEX here

Price movement of the Nasdaq

The Nasdaq futures are currently at 19.915 which is 535 points (2.6%) lower than last week's position.

The Nasdaq futures are correcting this week from the sharp rise of the past few weeks and continue to move volatile around the well-known 20,000 points. The futures are moving between 20,300 and 19,800 and, of course, are also awaiting the important numbers on Friday at 2:30 p.m.