Research June 7, 2024


Price movement AEX Index

It is Friday, June 7, and the AEX is at 924 in the morning session. That is 19 points higher than last week's reading. Above is the chart of the AEX over the past six weeks. This is the period after the larger correction in April. You can see the rise that followed and the sideways range as of May 11. The breakout at the top is defined as insufficiently convincing with an increased risk of a false breakout.

In the past week, as we have indicated, the AEX has once again tested the bottom of its well-known sideways range. With an intra-day low at 898, the index then continued to climb in recent days to its preliminary high of 927. Currently again at 924.

What is the Expected Trend for the AEX Index?

The algorithm has long indicated the price target at 935. The system indicates that there is a reasonable probability that the price target will indeed be met, due to a high of 927 combined with the pattern of price movement over the past week. However, the most likely scenario is a correction of the AEX that could lead to the 874 level. This does not necessarily mean a short signal yet, but it does imply an exit signal for the long position. We closed this morning at 926 and remained on the sidelines in the AEX for a while.

The long trend is up. The final price target is unchanged at 1025. On the way to the target, we should expect a correction that could lead to 874 and 825.

Backtrack: Read our outlook on the AEX Index from May 31, 2024

Price movement Nasdaq

The Nasdaq futures are currently at 19,075, which is 510 points higher than last week's reading.

The Nasdaq has shown the same pattern as the AEX over the past week. With a low of 18,275 and the follow-up rise to above 19,000, the price trend has been exactly as indicated. Unlike the AEX, the algorithm for the Nasdaq does not imply an exit signal.

What is the Expected Trend for the Nasdaq?

The most likely scenario is a short sideways move in which the volatile Nasdaq moves between 18,600 and 19,200 before continuing to rise to the initial price target of 20,500. The trend is strong upward with a long-term price target of 21,500. Only below the 17,000-point line will the system confirm the trend break and we can look further down. For now, the Tech sector is still strongly up.

Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100 futures as of January 1, 2024. After the firm correction within the uptrend in April, is it possible to see the high at over 18,900 and the slight technical correction over the past few weeks with the valid breakout in recent days.


Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.


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