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Publication date: February 27, 2025
It is Thursday, February 27, and the AEX is at 926 by noon. That is 15 points (1.6%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week
The AEX opened the week at 933. On Monday, the high was set at 934 before continuing the expected decline. The as yet lowest price today was set at 923
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX is positive for the longer term, but there is room for an interim correction to the 920-900 zone for the short term.
What is the expectation on the AEX?
The course of the AEX is in line with expectations so the future outlook has not changed. The position is neutral.
Based on recent weeks, the expectation is that the AEX will take a step back from the zone 945-950 for a while. This correction may push the AEX back into the 920-900 zone. From that zone, the AEX is expected to pick up the thread and round out the uptrend to our second price target at 980.
Above is the chart of the AEX over the past 3 months. The arrows indicate the trend we already expected and the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq over the past week?
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 21,320 which is 835 points (3.75%) lower than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures opened the trading week at 21,700 points only to fall back within the trading range to 20,990. Currently, the Nasdaq is recovering slightly.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq future?
The Nasdaq has been bouncing within the wide range 22,400 and 20,900 for three months now. For the speculative investor, this provides short-term opportunities by constantly buying at the bottom of the range and selling at the top. Long-term expectations depend entirely on the direction of the breakout. The mathematical model gives a higher probability of a larger price correction and thus a price breakout at the bottom of the range. The correction has two dots on the horizon: at 20,000 points and 18,750 points.
The position is neutral and we are waiting for a safe entry point.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures over the past 12 months with the neutral zone built over the past three months. The light gray arrows indicate the price targets of the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 43,600 points, which is down 1016 points (2.25%) from last week's reading.
The DJIA opened the week at 43,532 after the index already fell sharply on Friday. It is not experiencing any major declines in recent days and is hovering around this price.
What is the expectation for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
The DJIA is moving exactly according to our expectation, so there is no change in the future outlook. The longer-term expectation is positive, but also for the DJIA, the possibility of an intermediate correction to the levels 41,750 and further to the 39,900 has increased. The view and position are currently neutral and we have to wait and see.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures over the past 8 months with the most likely scenario plotted. Importantly, the level around 40,000 points is a prelude to another buying opportunity.
Important items on the economic agenda for the week of March 3 through March 7:
Next week we can expect another number of important events.
Monday at 3:45 p.m., the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index from the U.S. and followed on Wednesday at 3:45 p.m. by the Purchasing Managers' Index from the U.S. Services Sector.
Thursday at 2:15 p.m. ECB interest rate decision followed by the press conference at 2:45 p.m.
Friday at 14.30 we look forward to the most important event of the week as the monthly labor figures from the US will be published again.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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