Research march 15, 2024


Price movement AEX Index

It's Friday, March 15th, and the AEX is at 857 in the morning which is 11 points lower than a week ago.

Above is the chart of the AEX since September 2023. The vertical line represents January 1, 2024. You can observe the strong upward movement, particularly in January caused by the tech stocks. Additionally, you'll notice the overall sideways movement in February. After last week's breakout to 872, the AEX retraces this week back into the sideways channel. The target price for 2024 remains 920.

Last week, the AEX set a provisional top at 872 on good news. This week, tech stocks are pulling back slightly, and we've seen mildly disappointing inflation figures from the US. As a result, the AEX retreats momentarily within the sideways channel between 843 and 865. The major trend for this year remains strongly upward, with a target price of 920.

What is the expected trend for the AEX Index?

For the coming week, our algorithm predicts, based on pattern recognition, a slight decline in the AEX and possibly even a test of the lower end of this channel at around 845.

The interest rate decision and the statement from the FOMC in the US, scheduled for Wednesday at 7:00 PM, will be crucial for the stock market's performance in the second half of the week. The expectation is that the interest rate in the US will remain unchanged at 5.5%. Much will therefore depend on the FOMC's statement.

We are closely monitoring this with our systems because a prolonged delay in lowering interest rates in the US could cause significant corrections in the stock markets in the coming weeks, potentially pushing the AEX back to 830-798. For now, the trend remains upward, and the market is strong, with a target of 920 for this year.

Backtrack: Read our outlook on the AEX Index from March 8, 2024


Price movement in the Nasdaq

Above, you'll find the chart of the Nasdaq100 since the summer of 2023, clearly showing the strong upward trend from October towards the initial target of 19,000. The current upward trend is fueled by the significant growth and, expectations of the tech stocks.

What is the expected trend for the Nasdaq?

Currently, the Nasdaq is at 18,250, about 250 points lower than at the end of last week. For the Nasdaq, the same scenario applies to the AEX. While the price movements in the Nasdaq are larger and more volatile than in the AEX, the trend and scenario are the same. Hence, the algorithm took a long position here on February 22 at around the current level. The initial target for the Nasdaq is 19,000, with an ultimate target of 22,500 for 2024. For the Nasdaq, the system will be keenly focused on a possible decline as a larger correction within the major upward trend, in the coming weeks.


Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.


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