It's Friday, April 12, and the AEX is trading at 892 an hour after the opening, having reached a peak of 894 earlier this morning. The current level is 14 points higher than last week.
Below, you'll find the chart of the AEX since January 1, 2024. After a period of sideways movement in February, you can observe an upward trend in March, reaching the initial target of 890. This was followed by a slight correction and then a continuation of the upward movement.
It has been a somewhat turbulent week in the stock markets. Globally investors have been focused on interest rates, particularly in the US and the EU. Interest rate policies are closely tied to inflation. US labor figures and the Consumer Price Index are indicators of inflation trends. These figures were favorable for the US economy, indicating inflationary pressures. Consequently, the Fed may see less reason to cut interest rates (quickly), which is a short-term negative for stock prices.
On Thursday, the US Producer Price Index was released, and the figure was contrary, ultimately providing better news for stock prices. The stock markets reacted sharply to these figures, an important observation is that bad news is quickly absorbed, and good news is immediately used to initiate large purchases, thereby quickly resuming the upward trend. The trend remains strong, allowing us to maintain focus on the target of 920 for the AEX. The index is currently at a significant technical resistance level, suggesting a short-term correction is possible, but the pattern indicates strong upward momentum towards 920.
The past week was an exciting one for the much more volatile Nasdaq. Ultimately, the same scenario applies to the Nasdaq as to the AEX. The only difference the algorithm indicates is that the AEX is already close to its 2024 price target and the Nasdaq is only at its first price target. This first price target is 18900 but for this year there is a high probability that the Nasdaq will continue to rise towards the 22,500.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100 -future since January 1, 2024. You can see the volatility and sideways correction in recent weeks within an uptrend.
