Publication date: October 31, 2025

The week ahead: Longest US shutdown ever?

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with an overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in the stock markets.

Review of last week:

The event that stood out last week was Fed Chairman Powell's statement that the December rate cut is not at all a done deal. US interest rates were cut by 25 basis points as expected, but the market had also already priced in another December cut. So this still appears to be an uncertain factor. Stock markets were sharply higher at the beginning of the week but fell back after Powell's statement.

Uncertainty about the upcoming interest rate cut also brought the crypto market down this week and the US Dollar gained ground.
There are concerns in the US about the weak labor market and about inflation remaining too high at 3%.
The ECB left interest rates in the EU unchanged at 2%. Inflation is under control in the EU.

Furthermore, Meta's share price drop stood out. After the third-quarter figures, the share price dropped about 13% and the stock has been placed on the Sell list by technical analysts.

Finally, the increased economic growth in the EU and in the Netherlands stood out. Germany, as the largest economy within the EU, is developing into a cause for concern. Low economic growth and an unchanged high unemployment rate of 6.3%.

Upcoming week:

The US shutdown looks set to be the longest ever. The record stands at 35 days. The shutdown has been going on since Oct. 1 and there seems to be no solution in the short term. For now, the U.S. economy is able to cope with the damage, but this obviously cannot continue for very long.

Because of the shutdown in the US, many publications of macroeconomic figures are postponed. For example, the publication of the important monthly labor figures is not yet on the agenda. These figures would normally be presented on Friday, November 7.
On Wednesday, however, ADP will release an estimate of the employment change in the US. Because of concerns about the development of the labor market in the US, these figures are important.

Otherwise, we do not expect any figures that will cause significant price movement. Developments in the shutdown and the international trade conflict may cause turmoil in the financial markets.

Economic Calendar week 45

Here is the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, November 3, 2025:

• 15.45 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) October

Tuesday, November 4, 2025:

Wednesday, November 5, 2025:

• 14.15 ADP employment change October
• 15.45 Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) October
  
  

Thursday, November 6, 2025:

Friday, Nov. 7, 2025:

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.