Publication date: April 30, 2026

 Review of the past week
 

The past week was marked by a busy macroeconomic calendar and quarterly results from major US-listed companies. The quarterly updates from Google, Microsoft and Amazon were received positively, while Meta disappointed.

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday evening. Within the US central bank, there is still disagreement about the future path of monetary policy. The ECB also kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. At the same time, inflation in the European Union rose sharply in April to 3%.

Developments in the Middle East also remained uncertain. As a result, the oil price rose to well above $100 per barrel.

The Nasdaq benefited from the strong quarterly results of several major technology companies, while broader equity indices came under pressure due to geopolitical uncertainty and fears of further rising inflation.

The PCE Price Index, published on Thursday and an important gauge of inflation in the United States, came in line with expectations. In March, the PCE Price Index rose to 3.2% year-on-year. In addition, the US economy grew by 2% in the first quarter of 2026. This points to continued growth, although the figure came in below expectations.

Upcoming week:

In the coming week, investors will mainly be looking ahead to the publication of the monthly US labour market figures on Friday, 8 May. The Non-Farm Payrolls are seen as an important gauge of the strength of the US labour market and therefore play a major role in expectations around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

The NFP figures have been mixed so far this year. January was positive, February was notably weak and March showed a clear recovery. Over the first three months, average job growth came in at around 68,000 jobs per month. That is significantly below the level normally associated with a truly strong US labour market.

For April, the market is currently expecting around 80,000 new jobs. That is clearly lower than the 178,000 jobs added in March. This suggests that investors expect job growth to slow after the strong March figure, but not yet to weaken sharply.

If the labour market proves weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve may gain more room to lower interest rates. However, a potential rate cut is strongly linked to the development of inflation. If inflation rises further, this could make a rate cut more difficult or even lead to renewed speculation about tighter monetary policy.

On Thursday, 7 May, AEX heavyweight Shell will publish its quarterly results. Expectations for the first quarter of 2026 are clearly more positive than for the previous quarter. Operationally, Shell appears to be benefiting from higher oil prices, strong trading results and improved refining margins. At the same time, cash flow may temporarily come under pressure due to significant working capital movements.

The stock market calendar week 19
 

The following is an overview of the most important macro-economic publications for the coming week. These figures may cause additional volatility in financial markets.

Monday, 4 May 2026:

No major macroeconomic publications.

Tuesday, 5 May 2026:

United States:

• 15:45 Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), April

  
  

Wednesday, 6 May 2026:

No major macroeconomic publications. 

Thursday, 7 May 2026:

No major macroeconomic publications.

Friday, 8 May 2026:

United States:

• 14:30 Average Hourly Earnings, Apri
• 14:30 Non-Farm Payrolls, April
• 14:30 Unemployment Rate, April

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