ASML has had a turbulent summer. Its stock price fell sharply in August and September. In mid-September, a warning from the AI sector put pressure on the chip industry. That loss has since been fully recouped. On Wednesday, October 14, ASML will release its third-quarter results. Today, we’ll discuss developments since our last article, look ahead to the results, and share our outlook for the coming months.

We recommend that you first read our article from July 15, 2026, titled “ASML raises expectations again: heading toward €2,350.” That way, you’ll be fully up to speed on the background. You can find the article HERE.

What have been the developments at ASML since July 2026?

Following the strong quarterly results on July 15, the stock price remained below the record high of €1,741 set on June 30. In mid-August, ASML was still trading around €1,620. After that, a correction set in. On September 14, the entire chip sector took a sharp dive. Top executives from the AI sector called for a slowdown in the development of the most powerful AI models.

Investors feared this would come at the expense of investments in new chip factories. ASML lost more than 4 percent that day. Besi and ASMI even fell as much as 9 percent at times. At ASML itself, there were no setbacks to report. The stock price dropped below €1,420 in mid-September . The recovery came quickly. Bank of America stated that analysts’ expectations for ASML are too low and that the stock is trading at a valuation close to the bottom.

In terms of operations, ASML is simply continuing to expand. On September 8, construction began on a new campus near Eindhoven to accommodate 20,000 employees. Intel reported positive results with the new High-NA EUV machines. These are the most expensive and most advanced machines that ASML builds. ASML also further expanded its collaboration with Samsung and TSMC. Back in July, the company announced plans to increase its EUV capacity from the current 65 machines to 110 machines by 2028.

The political situation remains the biggest source of uncertainty. The MATCH Act is currently before the U.S. Congress. This legislation could further restrict the sale and maintenance of DUV machines to China. DUV machines are the older generation of lithography machines that ASML is still permitted to supply to China. Prime Minister Rob Jetten discussed the bill with President Trump last week and says he is confident a workable agreement can be reached. The stakes are high. China could account for approximately €8.8 billion in revenue this year.

What are the expectations for the October 14 earnings report?

ASML will release its third-quarter results on Wednesday, October 14, before the market opens. The company itself issued a forecast in July. Revenue is expected to range between €11 and €12 billion, with a gross margin of 55 to 57 percent. The gross margin is the portion of revenue remaining after deducting direct production costs. In the same quarter last year, revenue totaled €7.5 billion. The midpoint of the range thus represents growth of over 50 percent. For the full year 2026, ASML has been targeting revenue of €43 to €45 billion since July.

The quarterly figures themselves, however, are not the most important factor. Investors are primarily looking ahead to 2027. UBS expects ASML to announce revenue growth of more than 30 percent for next year on October 14. In addition, management’s tone regarding two topics is significant. The first is China and the potential implications of the MATCH Act. The second is demand from the AI sector following the turmoil in mid-September. Confirmation that customers are proceeding with their investment plans would alleviate many of those concerns.

This points to two possible scenarios. If ASML exceeds its own expectations and provides a strong outlook for 2027, a rally toward the record high of €1,741 is likely. If the outlook is disappointing or management is cautious about China, the stock price could react sharply. In our view, the first scenario is the most likely.

What is the analysts’ outlook on ASML’s stock price?

Analysts remain largely positive. The average 12-month price target is around €2,000, approximately 25 percent above the current price. In recent weeks, several banks have reaffirmed their “buy” recommendations. Bernstein has the highest price target at €2,500, followed by Bank of America at €2,452. On September 1, UBS raised its price target from €2,250 to €2,350 and reaffirmed that target on September 28. JPMorgan and Berenberg both have a price target of €2,100.

The rationale varies by bank. UBS views pricing as the key profit driver. According to the bank, ASML can raise prices across its entire range of machines, from DUV to EUV. Bank of America believes the consensus is too low and expects ASML to grow faster than the chip equipment market through 2027.

Our model expects the price to break through the record high of €1,741 and rise further to the €1,890 range. That represents an increase of over 17 percent from current levels. The October 14 earnings report could be the catalyst for that breakout. The €1,890 level is our interim target set in July and therefore remains in place.

From €1,890, we anticipate a brief correction to the €1,740 range. That is the current record high. A level that the price has not yet broken through often acts as a new support level after a breakout. The correction then serves as a test of whether the breakout holds.

From that zone, our system expects the next strong upward move toward the unchanged price target of €2,350. That target is more than 45 percent above the current price and, according to our model, could be reached in the course of 2027. Yelza’s forecast thus places it at the upper end of analyst expectations, on par with UBS.

Conclusion

ASML recovered quickly from the turmoil of August and September, without the company itself providing any reason for such a recovery. According to our model, the correction is complete, and the path is clear toward €1,890 and then to the unchanged price target of €2,350. Given the continued growth in revenue and earnings, we believe the upside potential is far from exhausted.

If you already hold a position, you may consider holding it as the price approaches €1,890 and adding to it during the expected correction toward the €1,740 range. If you do not yet have a position, you might consider taking a modest position at the current price and building it up further during that same correction. If you’d like more clarity on ASML’s outlook first, you can wait for the earnings report on October 14.

On Wednesday, October 14, 2026, ASML will release its third-quarter 2026 earnings before the market opens.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts’ own insights and experiences. They are therefore intended for educational purposes only.