Publication date: December 5, 2024

ASML is a special stock within the AEX Index. With its weighting of over 15%, together with fellow heavyweights Unilever and Shell, it makes up almost half of the AEX. In addition, the price has high volatility, making ASML in practice the most important participant within the price formation of the AEX-Index. Moreover, ASML has shown a strong upward pattern over several years. As a reminder; 5 years ago the share price was around €250 and last summer briefly above €1,000. Not surprisingly, ASML is so popular among investors and we love to write about it.

So too in mid-October : Click here for the previous article.

The volatility of ASML was demonstrated once again in the period mid-July to early November when the share price fell as much as 40% from over €1,000 to €605. This was due to the fact that at that time ASML could not meet the sky-high expectations and therefore had to publish somewhat disappointing reports and figures.

What is the current situation at ASML


ASML has recently indicated that the new export restrictions from the United States to China will not have a significant impact on demand for their products in the long term and stressed that their demand forecasts are based on global demand and not on specific geographic markets.

In addition, ASML confirmed its financial targets for 2030, with projected annual sales between €44 billion and €60 billion and a gross margin of 56% to 60%. This confirmation offers reassurance to investors after previous concerns about the market.

Earlier this year, ASML downgraded its expectations for 2025 because of a slower-than-expected recovery in the chip market.

Despite this, the company remains optimistic about long-term growth, in part because of increasing demand for technologies such as artificial intelligence. In the meantime, ASML's share price has been hovering at the low level around €650 for just under 2 months, forming a technical bottom. Last week, ASML managed to find its way back up again by breaking through the top of the zone at
€680.

What is ASML's outlook

We have written it many times before and you can read it back in previous articles; ASML is an international wonderful company in a sector with fantastic opportunities. That is why we like to get in at times when things have been disappointing for a while, because even at ASML that is part of the game, and the price shows a bottom.

Below you will find ASML's price chart for the past six months and the forecast for the coming six months.

You can see the bottom formation over the past 2 months and the recent breakout. The first green arrow and the text speaks for itself; get in. The most probable scenario of our algorithm expects a correction of about 10% from the €800 mark and then to rise further to the indicated price target €970.

Note:This most probable scenario gives such a high probability that we can publish it but of great importance is to mention that the second biggest possibility is that ASML will still go through a final final decline to the zone
€540 to €500. This should be kept well in mind. Of course, another fall gives the ultimate opportunity to buy in or re-enter.