Publication date: March 6, 2026

Outlook: US inflation figures

In Money Care's weekend report, we provide an overview of macroeconomic developments that could potentially cause additional movement in financial markets in the coming week.

Review of the past week

Increased geopolitical tensions and uncertainty about developments in the Middle East are bringing nervousness among investors. This means erratic outcomes in financial markets.

During this unsettled period, the monthly labor figures from the United States were released Friday afternoon. This important jobs report for February indicated that the labor market in the U.S. is developing poorly. In February, the number of new jobs decreased by 92,000, while an increase of 58,000 jobs was expected. The January figure was revised slightly downward. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% of the labor force. This is higher than expected. Hourly wages rose more than expected on average. In short, the labor market is shrinking and wages are rising faster than expected.

A disappointing development in the important U.S. labor market should give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates to support the economy. The equity markets reacted negatively immediately and seemed to be mainly driven by higher hourly wages (inflationary) and overall uncertain sentiment.

Upcoming week:

Developments in the war situation in the Middle East will obviously continue to affect financial markets in the coming week. Share prices are expected to continue to fluctuate sharply as long as there is uncertainty about the further course of the conflict. The motto is to take modest positions and, above all, not to panic.

Note that in the United States, daylight saving time begins on March 8. For the next three weeks, the stock markets in the United States will open an hour earlier for us and also close an hour earlier. Economic figures will also be released an hour earlier than usual during that period.

On the macroeconomic front, the key inflation figures will take center stage, particularly those in the United States. Wednesday afternoon at 1:30 p.m. it is time for the Consumer Price Index and Friday at 1:30 p.m. the Kern PCE U.S. price index will be released. Inflation, although dropping, still remains higher than desired. If inflation falls further than expected and moves closer to the desired 2%, there will be room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In that case, equity markets are expected to react positively. If energy prices start to rise sharply because of the Middle East conflict, inflation will rise in the coming months and interest rates will not be cut for the time being.

The stock market agenda week 11

The following is an overview of the most important macroeconomic publications for the coming week. These figures may cause additional volatility in financial markets.

Monday, March 9, 2026:

Tuesday, March 10, 2026:

Europe

• 06:30 Dutch Consumer Price Index February
  
  

Wednesday, March 11, 2026:

Europe

• 08:00 German Consumer Price Index February

United States:

• 13:30 Consumer Price Index February
• 13:30 Core Consumer Price Index February
  
  

Thursday, March 12, 2026:

No major macro-economic figures

Friday, March 13, 2026:

United States:

• 13:30 Core PCE Price Index January

Please note that publication dates and times may change. Please consult the official communication channels of the relevant institutions and authorities for the most up-to-date information.

Disclaimer: Investing involvesrisks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.