Publication date: February 13, 2026

The week ahead: inflation and economic growth in the U.S.

In Money Care's weekend report, we present the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Review of last week:

The release of monthly labor figures in the United States (Non-Farm Payrolls) on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. presented a mixed picture. In January, the U.S. labor market developed better than expected. However, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also announced that the number of new jobs over the full year 2025 was revised sharply downward.

Equity markets reacted positively to this, as this revision indicates that the labor market appears weaker than previously assumed. This may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. In the second half of the week, equity markets lost ground again. In particular, the tech sector was under pressure.

On Friday at 2:30 p.m., U.S. inflation (CPI) figures were released. This provided a positive surprise at the end of the week. Inflation fell to 2.4 percent year-on-year in January. On a monthly basis, the increase came in at 0.2 percent. Both figures were below market expectations and were positively received by equity markets. Gold prices and cryptocurrencies also benefited from the favorable inflation trend.

In addition, markets were under the influence of mixed corporate figures. In Amsterdam, Adyen caused significant pressure on the index. Its share price fell about 30 percent, leading to a 1 percent drop in the AEX. Ahold Delhaize, Heineken and Unilever managed to partially counterbalance with price gains.

Upcoming week:

On Monday, Feb. 16, the U.S. celebrates Presidents' Day and U.S. stock markets remain closed. In China, stock markets are closed all week due to the celebration of Chinese New Year.

On Friday, Feb. 20 at 2:30 p.m., investors look forward to the release of U.S. fourth quarter 2025 gross domestic product (GDP). GDP provides insight into economic growth. In the third quarter of 2025, economic growth was 4.4 percent annualized. Growth is expected to remain at a similar level in the fourth quarter. If GDP comes in lower than expected, it may reinforce expectations of an interest rate cut.

At the same time, the core PCE price index is also published. This figure is considered an important measure of underlying inflation because it measures the development of personal consumption expenditures excluding volatile components such as energy and food. The core PCE is expected to come in at 2.8 percent year-on-year. A lower rate may indicate that inflationary pressures are easing further, which could provide room for an interest rate cut.

The stock market agenda week 8

Below are the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. These figures may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, February 16, 2026:

Tuesday, February 17, 2026:

European Union:

• 08.00 German CPI January

Wednesday, February 18, 2026:

United States:

• 14.00 Minutes Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
  
  

Thursday, February 19, 2026:

No important macro-economic dates

Friday, February 20, 2026:

United States:

• 14.30 GDP Q4 2025
• 14.30 Core PCE price index December (annual)
• 15.45 Purchasing managers' index of services and manufacturing February
  

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.