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Publication date: June 19, 2025
It is Thursday, June 19. The AEX is at 913 in the morning session. That is 18 points (1.9%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
Due to the heightened tension in the Middle East and the uncertainty surrounding the possible international escalation, the AEX had to take a step back in the past week. After recording a high of 941 the week before, the AEX opened this week at 924. This morning, the AEX set its provisional weekly low at 912.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Sentiment on the AEX is positive but expectant because of the geopolitical situation. The trade war and the Middle East conflict could have a significant impact on short-term price movements.
What is the expectation of the AEX?
In the most likely scenario of our algorithm, the AEX is going to rise to the price target of 1,050. Due to the increased explicit risk of a short price fall, the stop loss of the buy position in the AEX is lowered from 895 to 865.
The possibility of a short panic sell-off has increased, so the position is allowed more space. In the ride to the price target, we should expect some resistance around 935 and 950.
Above is the chart of the AEX over the past three months. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq over the past week?
The Nasdaq futures stand at 21,815 on Thursday morning, June 19, which is the same as last week's position except for 5 points.
With that said, the Nasdaq futures seem to be suffering little to no geopolitical tension at the moment. On Monday, the Nasdaq set its weekly high at 22,222, approaching the previous high at 22,400.
What is the outlook for the Nasdaq futures?
In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq futures could still fall a few percent to the 21,000 / 20,700 level. From that level, the Nasdaq can continue its advance toward its first price target at 24,000.
Around 21,000, a speculative buy position can be considered. At a close above 22,400, a buy position can also be considered. Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from January with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 42,300 points, which is 350 points (0.7%) lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA opened the week lower, but managed to recover strongly in the following days. Currently, the DJIA is falling back slightly, but the overall picture is calm.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
From the current level, there is room for a further decline to around 41,200 / 40,300. Then up to 48,000.
Below is the chart of the DJIA futures from September 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
Every Sunday morning, we publish the Economic Calendar for the coming week. Would you like to receive the stock market agenda by mail? You can sign up here.
In the agenda, we cover the most important topics through an explanation and vision. Read the Economic Calendar for the week from June 16 to 20, 2025, here, and from Friday afternoon, you can read the agenda for the week from June 23 to 27, 2025, here.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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