Publication date: June 13, 2025

The week ahead: US interest rate decision

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Review of last week:

The U.S. Consumer Price Index released on Wednesday came in lower than expected. On both a monthly and annual basis, inflation rose less than market expectations. This includes core inflation which excludes price changes in food and energy.

This was a boost as there were fears of a larger increase in inflation due to U.S. import tariffs. US equity markets rebounded after this news but failed to hold gains.

The trade war between the US and China had a breakthrough last week with a preliminary agreement in London based on tariff breaks and rare earths. The deal still awaits final approval from Trump and Xi, but markets are reacting positively. The negotiation phase seems over, now the implementation and monitoring phase begins.

Coming week:

In the coming week, FED Chairman Powell's press conference in particular has our attention. Wednesday evening the Fed will first announce its interest rate decision at 8 p.m. followed by the press conference at 8:30 p.m. No interest rate change in the U.S. is expected but what matters is how the FED thinks about inflation and trade barriers. It is expected that the Fed may announce another interest rate cut in September. This depends on the course of inflation and the labor market in the US. As long as inflation remains under control and the labor market weakens then this will be a trigger for a fall interest rate cut in the US.

Further attention to the fact that the US stock markets will be closed on June 19. This is because of Juneteenth National Independence Day. This is an official federal holiday in the US, recognized since 2021 to commemorate the abolition of slavery.

The economic calendar week 25

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week .

Monday, June 16, 2025:

Tuesday, June 17, 2025:

• 14.30 Retail Sales

Wednesday, June 18, 2025:

• 20.00 Interest rate decision (expectation: 4.5%)
• 20.30 FOMC press conference

Europe:

• 11.00 CPI (expectation: 1.9%)
  

Thursday, June 19, 2025:

United States:

• Stock markets closed
  

Friday,June20, 2025:

United States:

• 14.30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.