Publication date: April 17, 2025

ASML is a popular stock among investors. It is a wonderful Dutch company with enormous potential, but it also gives regular headaches. We have therefore already paid attention to ASML several times. Last Wednesday, ASML came out with figures and expectations. In addition, we find ourselves in a global trade war, which makes the markets very uncertain. Time for an update

Our most recent article on ASML is from December 5, 2024. In it, we discussed the bottom formation and the high degree of volatility. We gave a speculative positive scenario, but also the warning of a pullback to €500.
You can read the article back here.

Current situation at ASML

The current situation at ASML became clear when the first quarter figures were released. It is a mixed picture. Nice figures alternate with a warning. New U.S. import tariffs are creating uncertainty about global demand for chip machines. ASML warned that these tariffs cloud the outlook for 2025 and 2026. ASML's share price reacted weakly by falling more than 7% at the opening of the stock market.

Below is a summary of the release of the figures:

Revenue Q1 2025: €7.7 billion, within own expectations.
Gross margin: 54%, slightly higher than forecast.
Net income: €2.4 billion,
Order intake: €3.9 billion, including €1.2 billion EUV order. Below expectations.

ASML maintains its revenue forecast for 2025 between €30 billion and €35 billion, with a gross margin of 51% to 53%. The company remains optimistic about long-term growth, driven by demand for AI and advanced chip technologies.

To see ASML's stock market situation at a glance, below you will find ASML's price chart since December 5, 2024.

What is immediately noticeable is the enormous volatility. You can see that the price initially rose nicely 10% to € 750, but then fell about 35% to the panic level at € 509. Then again, huge percentage swings between €623 and €560. There is fear and uncertainty.

What is the expectation of ASML?

ASML is a strong company that once again publishes strong numbers that largely meet high expectations. Future expectations are nice and realistic. Of course, ASML cautions against the conditions in which it must operate. The current trade war brings uncertainty to future expectations. This does not alter the fact that ASML has an excellent long-term position to continue to grow hard.

We do not think the drop in the share price after the figures is justified. It indicates that fear reigns among investors. This provides opportunities.

Earlier, we reported that we expected ASML in the € 540-€ 500 zone to complete the major correction. ASML has recently been at €509 and then rebounded. However, due to the hysterical price movements from April 2, our algorithm lowered the possibility that the correction indeed ended here to 50%. The historical patterns have been disturbed in recent weeks, and the calculations had to be adjusted. Thus, there is a reasonable possibility that ASML will find its way up from the current level of around €575 to our long-term price target of €1,000+.

Note: of essential importance is to mention that the expectation is 50% that a new low will be set in the € 420- € 400 zone. This will be the definitive end of the correction, according to our expectations. This again provides a good time to consider extending the position in ASML as the long-term uptrend has not been broken and has yet to be completed.

Below is the price chart over the past 5 years. The current decline from €1,021 in July 2024 could theoretically continue to €410. The long term remains positive.

Conclusion

We are positive about ASML for the long term. Currently, fear reigns supreme, causing the price to make even larger outliers than usual. Exact levels are therefore difficult to determine. With the reach of €509, you can consider taking a small position at the current level of around €575 or a small expansion. There is still a possibility that another negative outlier may follow around € 420. At that point, you can again consider expanding the position small. The price target for the next few years is well above €1,000.
Given the high volatility and the high price target, you should seriously consider taking a small position relative to your capital.

Disclaimer: Investing involves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.