Publication date: July 17, 2025

ASML is the heavyweight in the AEX-Index and also the most valuable listed Dutch company. Research also shows that ASML is the most popular share among Dutch investors. On Wednesday, July 16, this Dutch pride came out with second quarter figures and expectations. Time for an update on ASML's situation and our expectations for the share price.

Our most recent article on ASML is from April 17. Right after the first quarter 2025 figures. Interestingly, ASML came out with better-than-expected first-quarter figures and also expressed concern about the future. The share price fell 10% in a short time to
€ 547,-. We see the same picture this week after publishing second quarter figures and expectations. History repeats itself and we can learn from it. You can read the April 17 article back HERE.

The current situation at ASML

The quarterly figures made clear the current situation at ASML. Once again, it is a mixed picture. Better-than-expected figures over the past period are interspersed with expressed concern about growth in 2026. Geopolitical tensions create uncertainty about the growth of global demand for chip machines. ASML warns that this situation clouds the outlook for 2026. Expectations for 2025 are high and confirmed by ASML, and expectations for the longer term (2030) also remain very positive.

ASML's share price reacted weakly by falling more than 7% at the opening of the stock market on July 16, accounting for the 1% lower opening of the AEX Index on Wednesday. Exactly the same scenario as three months ago.

ASML is a strong company that innovates fantastically and once again publishes strong numbers that largely meet high expectations. Future expectations are nice and realistic. Of course, ASML cautions against the conditions in which it must operate. The current trade war brings uncertainty to future expectations. This does not alter the fact that ASML has an excellent long-term position to continue to grow hard.

We do not think the fall in the share price after the figures is justified. Investors are reacting anxiously, which gives opportunities.

Earlier we reported that we expected ASML in the €540-€500 zone to complete the major correction. ASML was at €509 in April 2025 after the figures and the announcement of US import duties and then rebounded strongly to a price level around
€ 700,-. After that it remained relatively quiet. A fuss has been made about the price bump at ASML after the figures but in the larger perspective it is nothing at all. This becomes clear from the chart below of ASML over the past year.

What is our expectation for ASML

We stick to the longer-term price target of €1,000 (+). The expected price development is determined by our algorithmic model. ASML is fundamentally an excellent stock and has enormous potential but experiences sensitive negative price outcomes. This is the case around €600.

From that level, the model expects a rise to around €750. Furthermore, after an inevitable correction, the way to the price target of around €1,000 can be started. Below is the price chart of ASML from November 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.

Conclusion

We are positive about ASML for the long term. Currently, fear reigns again, causing the price to fall back sharply. Buying in such situations is worth considering for the long term for a stock like ASML. This means that we are following the lead and you can consider taking a buy position around €600.

The price target for the next few years is € 1,000 and keep the risk limited by using a stoploss at a close below € 500.
Given the high volatility and the high price target, you should seriously consider taking a small position relative to your capital at all times.