Publication date: September 5, 2025

The week ahead: EU interest rates and US inflation

In Money Care's weekend report, we present the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Review of last week:

The release of monthly labor figures in the US was the main event. The report includes several figures such as hourly wages, number of new jobs and the unemployment rate. Hourly earnings increased as expected, the number of new jobs in August did not increase as much as expected, the number of jobs in July was adjusted from 73,000 to 79,000 and the unemployment ratewas the same as expected. All of this is seen by the market as a cooling of the labor market,giving the Federal Reserve more reason to cut interest rates. Stock prices reacted positively.

Next week:

In the coming week, the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI)for August in the U.S. will be important. The CPI measures the change in the price of goods and services and is thus a measure of inflation trends. In July, the annualized US CPI came in at 2.7%. This is still higher than the desired 2% which may cause the Federal Reserve (Fed) to become cautious about future interest rate cuts if the CPI continues to rise over August. The market expectation is an increase in annual inflation to 2.8 to 2.9%. Thus, a slight increase in US inflation is already taken into account. If inflation has increased more than expected then it will have a negative impact on stock prices. The CPI will be published Thursday, Sept. 11, at 2:30 p.m.

The ECB will release its interest rate decision and press conference on Thursday, Sept. 11. Interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the EU as inflation heads neatly the 2.1% mark.

The stock market agenda week 37

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in financial markets.

Monday, September 8, 2025:

Tuesday, September 9, 2025:

• 06.30 CPI August Netherlands

Wednesday, September 10, 2025:

• 14.30 Producer Price Index August
  
  

Thursday, September 11, 2025:

United States:

• 14.30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) August/annual
• 14.30 Core CPI August

• 14.15 ECB interest rate decision
• 14.45 ECB press conference
  
  

Friday, September 12, 2025:

• 08.00 CPI Germany

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and authorities.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.