Publication date: Aug. 8, 2025

The week ahead: inflation data US

In Money Care's weekend report, we present the overview of (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in stock markets.

Review of last week:

There were no significant macroeconomic events in the past week. The US and China are still in talks over the extension of the tariff pause that officially expires Aug. 12. Extension indications are present but there is no agreement yet.


Coming week:

In the coming week, inflation figures from the U.S. will become important. The Consumer Price Index will be released Tuesday, Aug. 12, at 2:30 p.m. ET. Market expectations are for an increase in inflation to 2.8% year-over-year. Core inflation is expected to increase on a monthly basis from 0.2% in June to +0.3% in July. Core inflation excludes price changes in food and energy. The expectation for monthly CPI in the US is a decline from last month from +0.3% to +0.2%.

Keeping inflation under control is important for the economy and stockmarkets. A 2% annual increase in the prices of goods and services combined with good labor market development is optimal for economic development. These are the Fed's policy objectives. After the disappointing monthly labor figures in July, the probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 90%. If it turns out that inflation increases more than expected then the possibility of the interest rate cut will start to decrease significantly and equity markets will react negatively. A moderate development in the labor market and sharply rising prices are not favorable for stock prices. If inflation rises less than expected then we can expect a positive reaction in stock markets.

The stock market agenda week 33

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, August 11, 2025:

No major macroeconomic data.

Tuesday, August 12, 2025:

• 14.30 Core CPI July
• 14.30 CPI July
• 14.30 CPI annual

Wednesday, August 13, 2025:

EU:

• 08.00 CPI Germany
  
  

Thursday, August 14, 2025:

United States:

• 14.30 Producer Price Index (PPI) July

Friday, August 15, 2025:

United States:

• 14.30 Retail Sales July

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.