Publication date: July 18, 2025

The week ahead: ECB interest rate decision

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in the stock markets.

Review of last week:

President Trump caused a stir by announcing over the weekend that import tariffs for the EU will go to 30%. The markets barely reacted, showing that investors are no longer so hugely impressed by Trump's statements.





Still, there was brief panic on Wednesday as Trump announced that he will fire Fed Chairman Powell. Stock markets dropped one percent in a short time. When it turned out that there is no question of dismissal, the markets immediately recovered. Inflation figures out of the U.S. were in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, core inflation was slightly lower than expected, but on a yearly basis, US price growth was again slightly higher than expected. The U.S. Consumer Price Index is currently at 2.7% on an annualized basis. The desired rate is around 2%.

In Britain, the price index rose more than expected to 3.6% and in the EU inflation is at 2% year-on-year.

Notable was the rise in retail sales in the US. While in May there was still a decline of 0.9%, in June sales increased by 0.6%. This is obviously a positive development for the US economy. As long as inflation remains under control and the labor market continues to develop healthily, a strong increase in retail sales is very positive for stock prices.

Next week:

Next week we do not expect any macroeconomic figures or events that could cause significant price swings.

The most important event is the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday, July 24. The ECB is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for now and possibly announce another rate cut in September.

Regarding trade tensions between the U.S. and China and the EU, several trade talks are on the agenda. An EU delegation is in the US to discuss and avoid the announced 30% measure. In addition, an EU-China summit is taking place in Beijing on July 24 and 25.

The stock market agenda week 30

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, July 21, 2025:

No major macroeconomic data.

Tuesday, July 22, 2025:

• 3:30 p.m. Address by Fed Chairman Powell

Wednesday, July 23, 2025:

• 16.00 Existing home sales June
  
  

Thursday, July 24, 2025:

United States:

• 15.45 Purchasing Managers Index Manufacturing(PMI) July
• 15.45 Purchasing Managers Index Services  (PMI) July
• 16.00 New home sales June
  
  

EU:

• 14.15 ECB interest rate decision
• 14.45 ECB press conference

Friday,July25, 2025:

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and governments.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.