Price movement AEX Index
It is Friday, June 28, and the AEX is at 926 in the morning session. That is down 4 points from last week's reading.
Above, you will find the chart of the AEX for June. From June 6, the AEX tested the 935 level three times and immediately fell back into the relatively sideways range of 935-916.
In the past week, the AEX has moved between 920 and 934. This marked the third attempt to break the solid hurdle of 935. For now, the AEX is failing to break through 935 and the market is hitting a lot of supply around this level. Last week's market session did not change the algorithm's view and most likely scenario.
The market needs a boost. This may come from the inflation figures from the U.S. that come out at 2:30 this afternoon. At issue are core inflation for May and on an annual basis. The expectation is 0.1% and 2.6% respectively. If the figures are higher, the Fed will see no reason to cut interest rates soon, and the stock market will react negatively. Of course, if inflation is lower, the opposite will be true. The inflation figures are leading the FED in its interest rate policy.
What is the expected trend for the AEX Index?
The underlying trend is strongly upward and the long-term price target remains 1025 but the most likely scenario for the AEX in the short term is a decline to 916 and then to test the 900 zone and possibly the 874. A 3% to 5% correction from the top at 935 is a perfect set-up for the next jump to the terminus at 1025.
So, in the coming weeks, we can expect lower prices in the AEX and need to be alert for good buying opportunities at lower levels for the long term.
Backtrack: Read our outlook on the AEX Index from June 21, 2024
Price movement in the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 20,100 which is 85 points (0.4%) higher than last week's reading.
In the past week, the Nasdaq futures have moved 20,100 and 19,700. After reaching the price target of 20,390, the volatile Nasdaq is moving sideways relatively quietly. As with the AEX, the Nasdaq needs a boost.
What is the expected trend for the Nasdaq?
The algorithm's most likely scenario remains unchanged from last week. Within the strong upward trend, a correction is in the making. With the highest level of 20,390, the first price target has almost been reached, and we can expect a decline of 5% to 8% from the top at 20,390 in the coming weeks. For the long term, the price target remains at 21,500, but a correction to the levels 19,200 to 18,600 is the most likely step and the lead-up to the next leap to 21,500.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100 futures for June. You can see the relatively sideways movement from June 13 and the decline after the first price target was reached.
Overall, the stock markets are waiting for the momentum to build and the highest likelihood is that prices will go through a correction on their way to the new top.
Major stock market news in the week of July 1, 2024 to July 5, 2024
We can look forward to the necessary numbers and events and expect stock price moves again In the coming week. After today's important inflation figures, we will get the US manufacturing purchasing managers' index at 3:45 p.m. on Monday. Not immediately the most important figure but in the current situation in the market we should be alert to such figures.
Monday at 9 p.m. and Tuesday at 3:30 p.m. the President of the ECB will speak. The Fed chairman is also speaking at 3:30 p.m. Tuesday. Both statements of the presidents will be watched closely by investors. US markets are open for half a day on Wednesday and closed all day on Thursday due to Independence Day.
The US Purchasing Managers' Index for the service sector will be released at 3:45 p.m. on Thursday. This is an important sector and affects the Fed's interest rate policy.
On Friday at 2:30 p.m., the monthly Labor figures in the U.S. are released. This is the most important event for the markets. It is expected to show an increase of 180,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4. Average hourly earnings are expected to have increased 0.3% in June. For the numbers, good for the economy is bad for the stock market. For example, should hourly earnings have increased more than 0.3%, that is a positive sign for the economy but will drive inflation. As a result, the Fed sees no reason to cut interest rates.
After a somewhat quiet stock market week, we should expect bigger moves again in the coming week.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
