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Price development AEX Index
It is Thursday, September 26, and the AEX is at 915 in the morning session. That is 12 points (1.3%) higher than last week's reading. Below is the chart of the AEX over the past four months. You can see the most likely scenario as we have been reporting it for several weeks now.
The AEX fluctuated between 896 and 910 through Wednesday but surged Thursday morning to 915. This is a result of strong earnings reports from the chip sector released Wednesday night after trading hours. The market awaits this week's inflation figures at 2:30 p.m. Friday.
What does this mean for sentiment?
Investor sentiment in equity markets remains unchanged and can be described as "optimistic." Provided that inflation stays manageable and the interest rate cut effectively stimulates the U.S. labor market, these strategies should positively impact stock markets. But the bar is high! Hence "hopeful" because there is certainly hope shining but a very slight setback will immediately start to cause anxiety. The Fed has made a substantial move and it should start to work out as expected. There is hope for a lot of positive news.
What is the expectation for the course of the AEX Index?"
The expectation unchanged but decreasing in strength. The algorithm has a running short signal for the AEX from 885. Price target 820 and stoploss at 930.
The most likely scenario remains that the AEX has completed the recovery in the 920-925 zone. Subsequently, the larger correction will be completed by a decline of the AEX to the 820 level.
More importantly, the strength and conviction of this pattern is waning. The algorithm is moving toward a neutral view. This means that the AEX short position is on the watchlist to be closed.
The major trend is up and the indicated decline is a healthy correction and provides perfect opportunities to buy shares for the longer term. AEX price target remains 1025 points.
Backtrack: read our view of the AEX of September 20, 2024 here
Price development of the Nasdaq
The Nasdaq futures are currently at 20.450 which is 400 points (2%) higher than last week's reading.
The Nasdaq futures were also very quiet for its performance through Wednesday, hovering somewhat around 20,000 points. On Thursday, the futures shot up 1.5%, putting the weekly high at 20,450 for now.
What is the expectation of the Nasdaq's price performance?
The Nasdaq futures are technically breaking out on the upside. The Nasdaq has been showing great strength for some time and is more convincing in this than the AEX. It is expected that the Nasdaq futures will continue to rise about 2% to the 21,000 level in the short term. After that a correction to then rise further to the price target 21,900.
The algorithm gives a buy signal for the Nasdaq based on this scenario. The stoploss is at 19,300 and the target price is of course 21,900.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq100 futures since June 2024 with the most likely scenario plotted.
Important items on the economic calendar for the week of Sept 30th to Oct 4th:
The week ahead is all about the US labor figures. These will be released Friday, Oct. 4 at 2:30 p.m. These are September figures so expectations are not too high yet. Last month's interest rate cut will only have to take effect in the coming months. Still, even now the development of the labor market in the U.S. is of great importance and the market will move considerably on Friday afternoon.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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