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Publication date: October 16, 2025
It is Thursday, October 16. The AEX notes 957 in the morning session. That is 6 points (0.6%) lower than last week's reading.
What happened on the AEX in the past week?
The AEX suffered a drop to 940 points at the end of the previous trading week after President Trump announced that he would increase import duties on Chinese products by 100 percentage points.
Due to the absence of important economic data, the market is somewhat adrift, so this statement hit investors hard towards the weekend. The decline in equity markets was therefore somewhat exaggerated. On Monday the AEX already opened at 947 points and this morning the recovery continued to the provisional weekly high at 957.
What does this mean for sentiment on the AEX?
Underlying sentiment on the AEX is positive with some caution.
What is the expectation on the AEX?
The expectation ispositive but the price target has been lowered by our algorithmic system from 1,035 to 1,015.
For the short term, the most likely scenario of our algorithm is that the AEX shows a sideways to slightly lower price trend in the coming weeks. In this, the AEX may fall to the 938-930 zone. Then the rise to the price target 1,015.
Below 880 the positive scenario expires and the AEX enters a neutral zone with an increased risk of further decline. As long as 880 holds, the positive scenario remains in place.
Above is the chart of the AEX as of January 2025. The arrows indicate the most likely scenario for the coming months.
What happened on the Nasdaq over the past week?
The Nasdaq futures are at 25,000 on Thursday morning, Oct. 16, which is 340 points (1.35%) lower than last week.
The Nasdaq futures are experiencing a recovery week after falling to 24,158 on Friday, Oct. 10. The weekly high is 25,115 which keeps the Nasdaq futures 1% below the record low of 25,394.
What is the expectation for the Nasdaq futures?
The expectation is positive with a price target of 26,500. In the most likely scenario, the Nasdaq will continue its mid-term correction to a level of 24,000points. With a close below 22,200, the positive scenario expires.
Below is the chart of the Nasdaq futures from February 2025 with the most likely scenario.
What happened on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Index this past week?
The DJIA is currently trading at 46,550 points, which is 310 points (0.65%) lower than last week's reading.
The DJIA also experienced a recovery week after falling to 45,383 on Oct. 10. The weekly high is 46,912 with which the DJIA has completely erased last week's loss.
What is the outlook for the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index?
The expectation is positive. In the most likely scenario, the DJIA may experience a continuation of the correction to the 45,200 level in the short term and then reach the 49,000 price target. The scenario expires at a close below 43,200.
Below is the chart of DJIA futures from January 2025 with the most likely scenario plotted.
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In the fair agenda we cover the most important topics through an explanation and vision. Read here the stock exchange agenda for the week of October 13 through October 17, 2025 and from Friday afternoon read here the stock exchange agenda for the week of October 20 through October 24, 2025.
Disclaimer: Investing involves risk. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.
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