Publication date: October 10, 2025

The week ahead: how long will US stay in shutdown?

In Money Care's weekend report, we present you with the overview of the (macroeconomic) events that could cause movement in the stock markets.

Review of last week:

Due to the shutdown of the federal government (shutdown) in the US, US macroeconomic publications are being delayed.
It is still unclear how long this situation will last. The majority of analysts report that a shutdown could last up to three weeks, meaning that we may not be provided with important economic data again until the last week of October.

The shutdown may not last very long in economic terms either as models and expectations point to a growth impact of about 0.1 percentage point per week during the fourth quarter if the shutdown continues.

For now, equity markets are faring reasonably well. An economic downturn gives much more air to the Fed to cut interest rates sharply in the coming months. No major data were published outside the US.

Upcoming week:

As long as the US shutdown continues, we will focus on economic data from Europe. Generally, these have less influence than the data from the US.

October 14 will see the release of the monthly Consumer Price Index in Germany and on Friday, October 17, the EU inflation rate. This is expected to be 2.2% year-on-year. In the Netherlands, inflation has now risen to 3.3% and is well out of line within the EU.

If the shutdown is lifted in the coming week then there will be a flood of data coming out of the US. The monthly labor figures will most likely be released and possibly then the inflation figures from the US will also be released. However, the timing of release is currently completely unclear as the shutdown continues.

The stock market calendar week 42

Herewith the most important macroeconomic data for the coming week. The data may cause additional movement in the financial markets.

Monday, October 13, 2025:

Tuesday, October 14, 2025:

• 08.00 German CPI September. Forecast +0.2%

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025:

• 14.30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) September and yearly
• 14.30 Core CPI September
  
  

Thursday, October 16, 2025:

• 14.30 Producer Price Index (PPI) September
• 14.30 Retail Sales September
• 14.30 Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index October
  
  

Friday, October 17, 2025:

• 11.00 Consumer Price Index (CPI) September and annual

Please note that dates and times of these events may change. For the most up-to-date information, it is advisable to consult the official communication channels of the relevant organizations and authorities.

Disclaimer: Investinginvolves risks. Our analysts are not financial advisors. Always consult an advisor when making financial decisions. The information and tips provided on this website are based on our analysts' own insights and experiences. They are therefore for educational purposes only.